085 FXUS61 KRLX 022330 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 730 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Clipper system crosses tonight into Sunday. Warm front crosses Monday. Low pressure crosses Tuesday afternoon and night. Complex low pressure system crosses mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 730 PM Saturday... Made some minor adjustments to dewpoint temperatures based on current observations as areas along east/southeast WV are trending on the slightly drier side. Otherwise, current forecast remains on track. As of 130 PM Saturday... Incoming clouds on satellite imagery reflect a weak cold front moving in due to a clipper to the northwest. This parent system will advect in some moisture, although fairly shallow, but nevertheless enough to promote some light rain to mainly the northern half of the CWA through the overnight hours. As the system drives east and pulls off to the northeast by mid morning, a changeover to a wintry mix including snow and possibly some freezing rain/drizzle has potential to fall across the northeast mountains. Impacts should be limited due to shallow moisture profiles in the forecast soundings, however there will be a window of opportunity to lay down some minimal amounts of snow in the highest terrain for late morning. By the afternoon, clouds and precipitation start to clear out to unveil a fair weather day with temperatures able to climb just shy of seasonable by a few degrees or just slightly more. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 127 PM Saturday... Brief ridging at H500 brings dry conditions Sunday night, but another fast moving shortwave with a surface low pressure will pass just north of the area Monday. Most of the upper forcing will remain north of the area. Temperatures within the column are warm enough to sustain liquid pcpc. As a result, rain showers could occur across the area into Monday night. Warm advection at H850 will lead to additional rain showers Tuesday as a warm front lingers across the area. At the same time, an H500 shortwave will approach from the southwest on Tuesday bringing unstable conditions and better chances for showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday night. Allowed Likely and Categorical PoPs with this later activity per model consensus. The aforementioned warm advection brings a gradual warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday with above normal afternoon and nighttime temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 121 PM Saturday... A weak surface low pressure develops along the warm front over WV and VA on Wednesday, before the associated cold front crosses. This feature will maintain rain showers likely through the period with thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening Wednesday. The cold front crosses east Wednesday night bringing additional rain showers and thunderstorms given strong flow and deep layered shear and helicities just ahead of it amid a weak instability axis. By Thursday, the surface low pressure center will be over the Great lakes slowly moving east. Wrapped around moisture could enhance precipitation across our area. Temperatures will be warm enough to sustain liquid pcpn across the lowlands, while CAA could transition some of that into snow or mixed pcpn over the northeast mountains Friday night into Saturday. Expect above normal temperatures through midweek, returning back below normal by next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 730 PM Saturday... VFR conditions start the period and will gradually deteriorate late tonight as a cold front crosses through the area. Ceilings will drop in the MVFR range as this front crosses, with a few light showers possible at EKN/CKB and potentially PKB late tonight. Showers may linger along the northeast WV mountains, thus possibly affecting EKN and maybe CKB through the start of the day tomorrow. Overall, expecting showers to be light, however, may have brief visibility reductions. Additionally, CKB/EKN could potentially bounce between the upper IFR and low MVFR range in ceilings, but have left MVFR as the lowest conditions expected at this time in the TAFs. MVFR ceilings are expected to gradually lift from southwest to northeast tomorrow as skies begin to clear out along the southern portion of the area by the end of the period. HTS/CRW should lift first around the late morning hours with EKN/CKB lifting later during the afternoon. Flow this evening is light and from the southwest at most sites, with BKW the main exception with winds around 5 to 10 kts and a occasional gusts up to around 15 to 20 kts possible this evening. As the front approaches from the west, could have a few gusts at the other sites tomorrow morning into the afternoon as flow also shifts to become more westerly. Sustained winds around 8 to 12 kts is expected through the latter half of the period with gusts up around 15 to 20 kts expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings along the northeast mountains could lower into the IFR range early tomorrow morning. Timing of rain showers may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR in showers and possible thunderstorms Tuesday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ NEAR TERM...JZ/CG SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...CG