151 FXUS61 KAKQ 021937 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 337 PM EDT Sat Apr 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region pushes offshore tonight. A fast moving low pressure system tracks just to the north of the local area early Sunday morning. High pressure returns over the area on Monday. Unsettled conditions are expected by the middle of next week as a series of low pressure systems move across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 335 PM EDT Saturday... Latest wx analysis shows strong upper troughing over far ern Canada, with quasi-zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic, and a progressive shortwave trough moving eastward over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure over the local area in place over the mid-Atlantic coast with weak low pressure over ern IL/S WI. High clouds (aoa 20 kft AGL) increase tonight from the W as that fast moving low pressure system currently over the Ohio Valley begins to approach. The system is still progged to track just to the N of the FA (from the lower Great Lakes to nrn PA) tonight with winds (briefly) becoming southerly although moisture return will be limited. This feature will bring a slight chc of showers to much of the area with PoPs as high as 35% near the immediate coast. Most likely timing for precipitation is from 2-8 AM Sunday morning. With the limited amount of moisture and the fast moving nature of the system, forecast QPFs are still only a few hundredths of an inch. Cannot completely rule out locally higher amounts (~0.1-0.2") in brief moderate showers across far SE VA and NE NC where forecast soundings show some very weak (100-200 J/kg) elevated instability during the latter part of the night. Lows mainly in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 335 PM EDT Saturday... Skies quickly clear on Sunday as WNW winds increase to 15mph (w/ gusts to 25mph) during the day as high pressure begins to build back toward the local area. Initially there will not be a whole lot of CAA in the wake of the low, but dew points will once again drop into the upper 20s-mid 30s across the area by Sun aftn with forecast highs in the mid 60s-around 70F. See fire weather section below for further discussion of fire wx concerns. Lows Sunday night are forecast to drop to ~40 E of I-95, and mid 30s W as some decent CAA is expected with high pressure building over the area. The high moves offshore on Monday and light onshore winds will keep highs in the upper 50s-low 60s near the coast on while highs inland will be in the mid to upper 60s. Increasing return southerly flow (and clouds) will only allow temperatures to fall into the mid-upper 40s Mon night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 335 PM EDT Saturday... A lead shortwave will drop out of the Big Sky Region toward the northern Plains to begin the forecast period. this will set up a broad, deep upper low over the eastern-third of the CONUS, with an equally deep upper ridge building just east of the Rockies into central Canada. The surface high shifts offshore late Monday night and into the day on Tuesday. Meanwhile, developing low pressure slides across the west-central Gulf Coast Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Will likely have some increasing clouds Early Tuesday with increasing moisture aloft. A bit milder as well, with increasing S-SW flow ahead of the approaching system. Highs in the mid to upper 60s along the Delmarva coast, low to mid 70s inland. Deterministic models and their respective ensembles continue to be in good agreement that there will be widespread showers from later Tue aftn into Wed AM as the deep south low tracks across the E TN Valley and the Carolinas and offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast. Cannot rule out an isolated tstm during this time across far srn VA/NE NC. Will continue to follow NBM and maintain categorical (80-90%) PoPs. Mild with lows in the 50s to low 60s. Most of the mid range/blended guidance continues to suggest that most of Wed/Wed night into Thu will be mainly dry w/ above normal temperatures. Amplifying upper trough will push a strong cold front across the region late in the day on Thu into Thu evening, with showers/tstms accompanying the FROPA. Trough aloft pushes into the ern CONUS by Fri bringing a cooler end to next week (with cooler wx likely lasting into the weekend). Highs Wed in the 70s-near 80F in most areas w/ upper 60s-low 70s on the Ern Shore/VA Nrn Neck. Lows Wed night ranging through 50s. Highs Thu in the upper 60s-low 70s N and W to the mid 70s- near 80F in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Fri mainly in the 60s, with low 70s across parts of NE NC. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure currently over the area today shifts offshore later this afternoon. 5-10kt NW-N-NE winds will turn to the S-SW inland by mid aftn (locally onshore at the coast). Clouds increase tonight with winds becoming southerly at 5-10kt at all terminals as a fast moving low pressure system tracks to our N. That weak system will bring a 20-35% chc of showers (mainly near the coast) late tonight but flight restrictions are unlikely. Skies clear out late Sunday morning. Winds shift to the NNW and become breezy, gusting to ~20kt. Outlook...Dry weather is expected Sun-early Tue, then unsettled wx returns as low pressure tracks across the area Tue aftn-Wed. Widespread showers are likely during this time with perhaps a rumble of thunder or two. && .MARINE... As of 335 PM EDT Saturday... This afternoon, high pressure is centered over the waters with winds ranging from light and variable over the coastal waters/mouth of the Chesapeake Bay to E around 5 to 10 knots closer to shore. Seas range from 2 to 3 feet (highest south) and waves in the Bay are around 1 foot. High pressure will continue to slide further offshore later this evening into tonight with winds increasing and becoming SSE. We may see a few gusts to around 20 knots later this evening into the first part of the night, especially for elevated sites across the Chesapeake Bay, but due to the marginal nature, do not expect any Small Craft Advisories for tonight. Winds shift to the SW later tonight ahead of a cold front as low pressure passes off to the north. The front moves across the area late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon with winds shifting to the W and NW in its wake. Initially, winds will be highest over the rivers and northern Bay, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible Sunday afternoon and evening. As a result, initially have a SCA for just the northern Bay and rivers during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday. A brief CAA surge follows Sunday night, bringing SCA conditions to the remainder of the Bay and the coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light (while the rivers likely fall below SCA thresholds) with continued gusts to 25 knots and seas approaching 5 feet (especially out 20 nm).High pressure returns Monday and slides offshore Tuesday. Another low pressure system is forecast to track across the area by the middle of next week bringing the potential for SCA conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 335 PM EDT Saturday... Influx of drier air across the region tomorrow will bring some fire Wx concerns for a good portion of the area. Drying w-NW flow will yield minimum RHs averaging in the 20 to 25% range inland, 25 to 30% along the coast tomorrow afternoon. This will lead to quickly drying fine fuels. W-NW winds, while not quite to critical thresholds, will average 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 MPH by tomorrow afternoon. After collaboration with neighboring weather offices and state forestry officials, have decided to go with an Increased Fire Danger Statement for our NC and VA zones (not including VA/MD eastern shore at this time. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AM/ERI SHORT TERM...ERI LONG TERM...ERI/MAM AVIATION...AM/ERI MARINE...AJZ FIRE WEATHER...