436 FXUS63 KFSD 310348 AAA AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1048 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Low pressure will drift eastward tonight with some wrap around moisture expected. While this will not produce much in the way of precipitations some light precipitation will remain possible. Slightly better forcing will move through northwest IA late afternoon into the evening but even there should not see more than a couple of tenths of an inch of accumulation. Clouds will be slow to exit, especially below about 2000 feet AGL, and will not really make a push to leave the area until later tomorrow morning. Will have to watch for fog potential in central SD if clouds can clear tonight, but for now it appears that there will be enough wind to keep radiational fog from developing. Thursday will see skies clear from west to east with abundant afternoon sunshine and gradually diminishing winds. Still a bit breezy tomorrow but not as windy as today. Highs in a few places will be limited a touch by snow cover, mainly the thin snow band west and north of Sioux Falls, but with the stronger sun angle a lot of melting is expected. Highs mid to upper 40s in central SD down the Missouri River with mid to upper 30s in southwest MN and over the deeper snowpack. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Thursday night into Friday will see increasing clouds as a fairly weak wave approaches from the west. Winds will be light and some radiationally cooled lows will be likely. Expecting teens to lower 20s in most locations but the cloud cover may limit some of the coldest lows. While forcing is not overly strong with this system there is a decent signal with forcing in the dendritic layer and some moisture available in the low levels. Looks to be mostly a rain threat but some snow would likely mix in if the rate is strong enough to wet bulb the drier low levels. For now nothing more than a fairly fast passing shot of precipitation from late Friday morning into the early evening. Highs roughly 45 to 55. Once this system passes relatively flat westerly flow aloft will set up for the remainder of the period through Wednesday. There is a system that is expected to pass through Sunday but agreement on this is not very high and overall does not look like a system that will cause many problems. The next system of interest may be next Wednesday but models are of course not real agreeable as to how it will play out. The EC Ensemble and GEFS both point towards next Wednesday as the only day with any potential to produce more than about a quarter of an inch of precipitation so will monitor the evolution and trends of this system as it approaches. Highs Sunday through Wednesday should mostly be lower 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 MVFR to IFR stratus will prevail overnight through at least early Thursday morning. IFR stratus should mostly remain confined to southwest MN, where light snow and/or freezing drizzle will continue through 10z. Light snow should taper off in northwest Iowa over the next few hours. North winds will continue to gust up to kts overnight, weakening slowly Thursday. Low confidence regarding when stratus will move out along and east of I-29, perhaps Thursday morning or as late as Thursday evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...BP