751 FXUS62 KCAE 292004 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 404 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north tonight allowing temperatures and moisture to increase for Wednesday ahead of the next weather system. A cold front will cross the area on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms. Drier air moves in behind the front on Friday with a chance of showers this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... This afternoon: A dry air mass remains over the forecast area with dewpoints in the teens to lower 20s. Temperatures continue to gradually warm through the 50s into the 60s under filtered sunshine due to passing higher clouds. Expect highs to range from around 60 north to around 70 in the CSRA. The stationary front remains to our south across southern GA. Tonight: Moisture will continue to increase across the region with low level southeasterly flow off the Atlantic and expect dewpoints to rise overnight as a result. Surface high pressure will shift further offshore as a deep low pressure system lifts northeastward into the upper Midwest. Strengthening isentropic lift over the forecast area combined with the increasing moisture in a warm advection pattern as the stationary front lifts northward as a warm front will help produce increasing clouds through the night with some lower stratocumulus expected by daybreak. The cloud cover and some boundary layer winds staying up will limit strong radiational cooling overnight. MOS guidance has also trended a bit warmer on recent runs so have adjusted hourly and Min temps a bit warmer with lows ranging from the mid 40s north to the lower to mid 50s in the CSRA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday: A warm front will lift north through the forecast area as southerly flow strengthens ahead of the deepening low moving into the Great Lakes region. Expect a breezy day with winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph during the afternoon with deep mixing expected. Temperatures are expected to warm significantly due to rising thicknesses and 850mb temps rising 5-6 degrees with highs ranging from the mid 70s north to the mid 80s in the CSRA. PWATs will rise to a bit over 1 inch with moisture advection into the region and cannot rule out isolated showers across the northern Midlands where Hi-res guidance is suggesting some activity, though no significant rainfall is expected. Wednesday night: The forecast area will be well into the warm sector with southerly flow continuing through the night around 5 to 10 mph keeping the boundary layer well mixed and limiting radiational cooling. As the cold front to our west approaches, strengthening 850mb flow off the Gulf of Mexico will increase moisture transport into the region, as a line of convection is expected to approach the western parts of the forecast area by dawn Thursday. Will show increasing pops from west to east during the 06z-12z time frame with likely pops reaching the upper CSRA. The threat of any severe weather will remain to our west through late Wednesday night. Temperatures will remain very mild overnight with lows expected to be in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the Central Plain states. Sfc front located across the Deep South. As a 50-60kt 850 jet traverses over the region moisture transport will quickly increase over the area, bringing PWATs to 1.5-1.75 inches by the afternoon. Moisture will mainly be low level during the morning then deeper moisture will move in from the Gulf during the afternoon. Sfc-3km shear will be in the magnitude of 60-70kt with the max moving mainly through central GA and along the southeastern half of SC. This looks to be associated with an emerging mesolow. The greater severe threat will be north of the area initially as the front begins to undergo frontolysis then later in the day as the meso forms the greater svr threat will mainly be to the south. Lift will be mostly weak along the Midlands but greater along the CSRA. Limiting factor will be instability. Ensemble guidance generally has max CAPE less than 500 j/kg, but the intensity is very dependent on the timing. For example, the NAM, which did a fairly good job at depicting last week's high shear event, does not bring instability north until after the helicity max is far north and east of the area. In general, greater severe threat will be possible severe strength winds, favoring the CSRA and south. High pressure builds into the region on Friday bringing drier weather. Temperatures do not fall much behind the front with near to slightly above normal daytime temperatures favored during the extended. Most models have backed off on rain chances for Saturday. Kept chance PoPs in the forecast for now with rainfall generally at or under a tenth of an inch. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 06z. Low clouds are expected to develop toward morning with possible restrictions. Pressure ridge centered over eastern North Carolina extending into the area. The air mass remains quite dry. Mainly some scattered mid level clouds at times across the region into the evening. A warm front will lift northwest into the area from Georgia late tonight. Low clouds may form near the front and spread across the area. This is supported by NBM and Lamp guidance. The clouds may develop in the Upstate and spread south into the Midlands and CSRA around 10z-14z. Latest consensus appears to MVFR although a period of IFR can't be ruled out through mid morning. Winds will be from northeast to southeast 5 to 10 knots. Wind in the boundary layer should limit fog as warm front moves into the area despite near surface dew points rising especially after frontal passage. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Breezy and gusty conditions expected Wednesday ahead of a front. Increasing confidence in restrictions late Wednesday night and Thursday in showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... The South Carolina Forestry Commission Red Flag Fire Alert remains in effect until further notice. Although winds will be lighter today, minimum relative humidity values will still be in the 15 to 20 percent range. Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement is in through 8 PM this evening. RH values will be higher on Wednesday as dewpoints rise associated with increased moisture advection into the region ahead of an approaching cold front. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... FIRE WEATHER...