736 FXUS64 KEPZ 291740 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1140 AM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022 .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE Winds and BLDU will be the main concern for today. Primarily VFR conditions are expected but MVFR and IFR are possible from VIS Reductions from BLDU. Winds will continue to increase this afternoon peaking 25 to 35 knots with gusts up to 45-50 knots. Direction will predominately be 250-280, except at TCS where 220-250. DMN is mostly like to see dust concerns today with previous wind events yielding LIFR conditions. LRU and ELP may also see reductions in vis though degree of reduction is less certain. SHRA and Iso TSRA is also possible this afternoon into tomorrow. This will bring variable skies with bases generally 100-120. If a site experiences TSRA, impacts should be brief. TCS is most likely to see any impacts from SHRA or TSRA, but impacts are possible at all sites. && .PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT Tue Mar 29 2022... .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper level storm system will be passing through the area today. This system brings cooler temperatures, strong gusty winds, blowing dust, lowland rain, and mountain snow showers. There is also a light chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Snow levels will be around 7000 feet with accumulations up to 3 inches in the highest elevations. So, a little bit of everything is going on today across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Weather conditions improve on Wednesday as the system leaves the area, but we will have some lingering showers and breezy to windy conditions. However, winds will be less intense on Wednesday afternoon. Late this week and over the weekend, westerly winds return and a few disturbances will pass through the area but with no major impacts except for breezy afternoon winds. Temperatures start below average today and tomorrow, then a warm trend begins on Thursday with above average temperatures expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight... A large Pacific storm system is moving inland from the west coast into Arizona this morning and eventually into New Mexico later today. This system will generate an active weather pattern across the area today. Very strong west to southwest winds will be the biggest impact to the region. Among the factors contributing to the strong wind speed increase include a very tight surface pressure gradient of more than 20mb across the state and a strong 120 knot jet aloft. Momentum transfer from stronger winds aloft and the tightened gradient will result in sustained surface wind speeds ranging from 30 to 40 mph for western zones to 35 to 45 mph for eastern zones. A high wind warning will be in effect from mid morning to early evening for portions of El Paso, Hudspeth, and eastern Otero County from mid morning through early evening. The El Paso metro area was added to the wind warning for possible strong winds along and east of the Franklin mountains. Wind speeds west of the Rio Grande will become stronger by mid morning, but will stay below warning criteria. the wind advisory for the area will be expanded to include the remaining areas of southwest New Mexico for today. Areas of blowing dust will occur with the strong winds today. Dust source regions have been active the past several wind events due to dry conditions. These source regions are expected to active again today with significant portions of dust lofted into the air. Reductions in visibility down to a 1 mile in some areas especially along portions of the interstate 10 corridor and other area roads are expected. A blowing dust advisory will be in effect for the more dust prone areas along the international border, including Luna, Dona Ana, El Paso and Hudspeth counties. To go along with the winds and blowing dust, the weather system will also bring a chance of showers and mountain snow to the area today that will taper off in the evening. Most areas will only see brief light rain showers with rain amounts under a quarter of an inch. Instability associated with the storm system will also allow for a few brief thunderstorms to form this afternoon that may enhance winds gusts and produce brief periods of small hail. Mountain areas will have a better chance of precipitation with some of it turning over to snow during the early morning hours. Snow levels will stay above 7000 feet with snow amounts generally under an inch. The Sacramento mountains my see as much 2 inches of snow as showers linger over that area into early Wednesday morning. Winds and showers will taper off this evening through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be cooler but not significantly so. A mix of rain and snow showers will linger over the Sacramento mountains into Wednesday as secondary disturbances swing down over the area behind the main system as it departs the region. && .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday Night... Weather conditions improve of Wednesday behind the first upper level system passing through the area this week. However, the pressure gradient at the surface remains tight on Wednesday. While the jet streak (at 250 mb) aloft takes a more southerly trajectory and with weaker flow than on Tuesday. The 850 mb winds among multiple global models continue to indicate winds of 20 to 35 kts during the afternoon hours. Slightly stronger in the eastern portions of the CWA, including far west Texas in the morning. For now, I'm keeping winds just below advisory criteria. But, it is still going to be windy with westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph. Some isolated areas may have slightly stronger winds, especially in the eastern slopes of area mountains. Some lingering showers are expected on Wednesday over southern NM. The showery activity should remain in areas north of I-10 in NM. Rainfall amounts will be light, less than 0.1 inches. The instability this time appears north of the area, so not really expecting storms, but wouldn't be surprised if there was a rumble or two in the far northern portions of the CWA closer to the core of the system. The mountains will have a mix of rain and snow in elevations above 7000 feet. Snow accumulations should in the lighter side too with an additional 0.5-1 inches possible by Thursday night. For the whole event starting today, snow accumulations should be under 3 inches. By Thursday, we remain under a broad trough covering most of the country. A weak surface trough in southern NM will shift the winds back to the southwest with speeds up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Temperatures will start to jump back up to seasonal values. As we head into Friday, a quick shortwave trough will pass north of the area. This system has been showing a drying trend in models. Thus, decided to eliminate POPs from the northern portions of our region. It appears that any showers with this system will be just to our north. Winds become from the west between 15 to 20 mph. So, it will be breezy again. Temperatures will continue to warm a few degrees from Thursday. This weekend we remain on zonal flow. Warm and dry air will continue to be advected into our area. Therefore, expect temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees above normal this weekend. Temperatures will be in the low-mid 80s across the lowlands. We may have a reduction in temperatures early next week, as a weak back door cold front pushes through, but it will only bring temps down a few degrees. && .FIRE WEATHER... Active weather will occur as a large weather system moves through the area today. Strong winds and blowing dust will affect most of the region beginning later this morning and continuing into the evening hours. Elevated fire weather concerns expected as wind speeds will exceed critical thresholds today, however an increase in atmospheric moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values above critical red flag values with 30s and 40s in the mountains and 20s and upper teens in the deserts. Scattered and generally light showers will spread across the area from west to east during the day, ending tonight. Elevations above 7000 feet will see a rain/snow mix with possible accumulations up to inch in the Gila Region and 2 inches in the Sacramento Mountains. Wednesday will see a return to drier but still breezy conditions with lingering showers possible over the Sacramento Mountains. Min RH values will remain above critical thresholds. For Thursday through Sunday lower wind speeds and warmer temperatures are expected. Dry conditions are expected with minimum RH values dropping into the lower teens and single digits. Breezy conditions will return the first part of next week. With a steady westerly flow pattern across the region, vent rates will be very good to excellent through the period. && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 71 51 71 46 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 73 41 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 65 45 71 41 / 20 10 0 0 Alamogordo 70 39 68 37 / 30 20 10 0 Cloudcroft 43 26 44 26 / 40 30 30 10 Truth or Consequences 60 41 69 40 / 30 10 10 0 Silver City 52 36 58 36 / 80 30 10 0 Deming 64 40 68 37 / 50 20 0 0 Lordsburg 60 36 66 35 / 80 20 0 0 West El Paso Metro 70 47 70 45 / 10 10 0 0 Dell City 74 42 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 78 45 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 65 41 64 40 / 0 10 0 0 Fabens 75 46 72 42 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 68 42 69 41 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 68 44 70 44 / 20 10 10 0 Jornada Range 65 40 69 37 / 20 10 10 0 Hatch 66 41 70 38 / 30 10 10 0 Columbus 66 42 69 41 / 30 20 0 0 Orogrande 68 41 69 40 / 20 10 10 0 Mayhill 57 32 58 29 / 30 20 30 10 Mescalero 55 30 54 27 / 40 30 40 10 Timberon 54 27 54 27 / 30 20 30 0 Winston 60 29 67 25 / 60 10 20 0 Hillsboro 60 38 66 39 / 50 10 10 0 Spaceport 65 38 69 36 / 30 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 52 31 59 30 / 80 30 20 0 Hurley 56 35 61 32 / 70 20 0 0 Cliff 61 31 68 25 / 90 30 0 0 Mule Creek 52 36 60 36 / 90 30 10 0 Faywood 57 37 61 36 / 60 20 0 0 Animas 63 37 68 35 / 70 20 0 0 Hachita 63 36 67 34 / 60 20 0 0 Antelope Wells 62 39 68 37 / 60 40 0 0 Cloverdale 55 36 62 39 / 70 40 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ407-411. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ414>417. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ402>413. TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ419>424. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418. && $$ 04/29/34