110 FXUS63 KJKL 281945 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 345 PM EDT Mon Mar 28 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2022 Latest analysis shows upper level low pressure over upper New England, ridging extending from Texas up through the US/Canadian plains, and an upper level low off the California coast. At the surface, high pressure is over the upper Great Lakes region, while to our S/SW there is a stationary boundary that stretches from off the SE coast, through the deep south, up through northern TX, and then northward east of the Rockies, with multiple areas of low pressure along the front. Locally, the region remains in NW flow aloft, with cold/dry Canadian air filtering into the region. Outside of some SCT mid and high clouds, mostly sunny and cool across Eastern KY this afternoon. Tonight and overnight, surface high pressure will slide to the east, and the frontal boundary to our SW will begin to lift north as a warm front towards the lower MS valley. Soundings continue to show the mid and upper levels moistening overnight, but the lower levels remain dry. Mid and high clouds will move into the area resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will generally be 25- 30 degrees, however some of the eastern valleys may drop into the lower 20s. Some patchy frost is possible again in the valleys, but much like the previous couple of mornings, it will be confined mostly to elevated surfaces. Will end up issuing an SPS again later this afternoon for hard freeze temps in the valleys overnight. The warm front lifts into the Tennessee valley during the day on Tuesday. With high pressure to our east, the low level flow will become easterly to southeasterly. Dew points will be on the increase from SW to NE during the course of the day. Some models still try to squeak out some light precip ahead of the warm front on Tuesday, but with the lower levels remaining fairly dry, it will likely just be some isolated sprinkles or a brief light shower out of the mid deck. Continue to hold Pops around 10 or less, as the vast majority of the area will be dry. There will be quite a difference in high temps on Tuesday as the Cumberland basin closer to the warm front will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s, while along and north of the mountain pkwy temps will only reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. Much warmer evening expected as the warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Remaining partly to mostly cloudy, with overnight lows ranging from the low to mid 40s N and across the mountains, to around 50 across the Cumberland basin. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 345 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2022 The extended period will overall be unsettled as an amplified pattern is present across the CONUS. To begin, Eastern Kentucky will sit within the center of an upper level ridge axes running from Southeast Canada and down through the Southeast. To the west, a series of upper level waves will sit within a longwave trough across the Central Plains. This will support a deepening area of low pressure that will traverse through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. At the same time, high pressure will be pushing off the East Coast, allowing for strong WAA and increasing moisture across the Commonwealth Wednesday. The two key take aways for the day will be the breezy conditions and warm temperatures. A tightening pressure gradient will allow for a strong southerly surge of Gulf air into the CWA. A strengthening LLJ will build in Wednesday night, with 850 mb winds on a scale of 55-65 kts. Surface winds will be breezy, particularly through the afternoon and overnight, blowing out of the south between 10 and 20 mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph. Given the flow associated, may be a bit harder for better moisture to advect in initially, especially for how dry conditions will be leading into the day and how warm temperatures could be. Because of this and collaboration with neighboring offices, have nudged down Wednesday afternoon dewpoints a couple of degrees. The Extreme Forecast Index highlights values in the 0.6-0.7 range for temperatures, an indicator for an unusual event but not one with high confidence. Given this, have used the NBM as a starting point, stretching a few degrees warmer and adjusting based on terrain influences. With breezy southerly flow in place and afternoon highs in the upper 70s and low 80s, there will be an enhanced fire risk with Min RH values between 20-25%. Have highlighted the threat in the HWO, with additional attention needed in later packages. As the low tracks further eastward, a trailing cold front will approach from the west, bringing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. As is the common theme across Eastern Kentucky, the environment will be shear dominant, with effective shear on a scale of 45-55 kts. Given the overnight timing and better LLJ dynamics to the west, MU CAPE will range up to a couple hundred J/kg at best. Timing wise, there are subtle differences in the operational runs so have veered closer to the NBM, though slowed the initial onset/arrival to later Wednesday evening. PoPs will then diminish through Thursday, with heights then recover into Friday. Agreement within guidance then diverges through the remainder of the period. An upper level shortwave will traverse through the Mid Mississippi Valley, bringing the opportunity for renewed PoP chances to Eastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon and through the end of the weekend. As far as temperatures, we start off warm before gradually cooling thereafter. Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 70s to low 80s before cooling into the low 60s in the west and low 70s in the east Thursday. Mid 50s to low 60s then follow Friday and through the weekend. For lows, mid to upper 50s to start, before quickly cooling off post front into the mid 30s to low 40s overnight Thursday. This trend continues into Friday night, with ridges in the mid and upper 30s and valleys in the low 30s. Lows will be less variable Saturday and Sunday with increased cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers, ranging in the upper 30s to low 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2022 VFR through the 18Z TAF period. SCT mid and high clouds over LOZ/SME this afternoon are expected to thin out over the next several hours. Winds N/NW 5-10 kts this afternoon becoming light and variable overnight and then will be E/SE around 5 kts on Tuesday. Mid and high clouds will move in late tonight and overnight ahead of an approaching warm front from the SW. Ceilings should be 10k ft or higher. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...BB AVIATION...CMF