884 FXUS64 KHUN 272032 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 332 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Northwest flow will persist aloft and at the surface has high pressure slides across the Ohio Valley and upper ridging builds eastward and into the Plains. Despite drier air filtering into the region, isentropic lift will be enough to keep mostly cloudy skies over much of the area this afternoon and evening. There may be a few sprinkles around the area, but with the drier low levels, not anticipating much in the way of precip. Tonight will be cool once again, with overnight lows falling into the lower to mid 30s. .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 We'll see a fairly quick warming trend through the first part of the new work week as high pressure slides off the east coast and upper ridging building into the region. On Monday, skies will generally become partly cloudy while winds veer to the northeast. Highs will warm into the lower to mid 60s by the afternoon as winds continue to veer to the east. Overnight lows will be fairly mild compared to the previous two nights, as temps only fall into the mid to upper 40s. On Tuesday, southerly surface flow will begin in earnest as a warm front lifts northward and through the area. Meanwhile, the axis of the upper ridge will move through the TN Valley, with southwest flow returning aloft by the early evening hours. This will translate into an influx of moisture and warm air advection, allowing daytime highs on Tuesday to warm into the upper 70s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 The main focus in the long term continues to be the threat for strong to severe storms on Wednesday. Strong WAA will continue into Wednesday as gradient winds strengthen ahead of the frontal boundary. A wind advisory will likely be needed during the day as sustained winds will range between 20-30mph with gusts over 40mph possible at times. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 80s across much of the area. The upper trough will begin to take on a negative tilt on Wednesday, and strong divergence aloft will result from a phasing of the polar and subtropical jets. For now, it looks like the most favorable combination of instability and shear will center just to our southwest, but this could change as the event draws near. Shear will be more than sufficient with H85 flow exceeding 60-70ks above strong convergence at the sfc. The main limiting factor for our area looks to be instability, as guidance suggests a capped environment through the afternoon and the sfc dewpoints struggle to top the lower 60s. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that a line of strong storms will enter NW AL around 00z and quickly track east. Expect the severe weather threat to largely end after 06z Thursday, but some changes in timing are still possible. The quick moving nature of the storms should limit widespread flooding potential, but a quick 1-2" of rainfall could lead to localized flooding and rises on area rivers and streams. The cold front will lag behind the storms, not expected to move through until around 18z on Thursday. Behind this, dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the work week with near normal temperatures. Another storm system could bring additional rainfall to the area over the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 VFR flight conditions are expected through the TAF period. Will see an increase in high clouds overnight and sfc winds will veer from N to NE by tomorrow. Wind gusts should remain below 20kts. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...73 SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...25 For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.