402 FXUS63 KMPX 260852 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 352 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon - Large storm system next week with the potential of significant precipitation, including snowfall. Cloud cover continues to persists over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin early this morning, but skies will continue to clear out this morning as much drier air filters in to the region behind a cold front. Temperatures are only expected to warm into the mid 30s this afternoon, but dewpoints near zero will allow for min RH values to drop between 20-30% this afternoon. Wind speeds will be decreasing during the late morning and through the afternoon, which will mitigate the overall fire weather threat, but speeds as high as 20 mph this afternoon will still lead to some elevated fire weather concerns. Winds will become light overnight, which will allow for low temperatures to fall into the single digits and teens with clear skies overhead. Even drier conditions are expected Sunday afternoon with relative humidity values falling well into the teens across most of central MN and west-central Wisconsin. However light winds mean no fire weather concerns are expected. Temperatures will again be cool with highs only in the mid to low 30s. Monday night will begin to see milder air moving northward, at least above the boundary layer which leads to uncertainty once the precipitation starts whether it will be a mixture of snow, rain, freezing rain or sleet. At least the onset of precipitation isn't expected until late Tuesday which may allow for milder temperatures farther northward than currently predicted in the NBM. First, global models have a similar upper level flow pattern which takes two systems across the Rockies, and merges them over the plains on Tuesday. Differences in the models develop Tuesday night and into Wednesday as the GFS supports one strengthening surface low over Colorado, and moves this feature to the northeast across the western Great Lakes by late Wednesday night. The GEM and EC have similar outlooks with a broad area of low pressure across the plains initially, and then develops a stronger area of low pressure across eastern Iowa Wednesday night before it slowly weakens Thursday and slows over the Great Lakes Thursday night. The differences between the GFS and EC/GEM have significant outputs on precipitation amounts and location, especially considering the slower movement and more wrap around moisture Thursday compared to the GFS. The 24-hour mean 500mb heights of the prototype clusters/anomalies support more of the EC/GEM solution as trends indicate a much stronger/slower mean trough developing over the western Great Lakes. Either way, a significant storm system will move over the plains next week with several ensembles indicating large amounts of QPF across the Upper Midwest. The exact location will be dependent on the surface features, and the speed of the system. As per precipitation type, it still looks likely that the onset will have a mixture of sleet/rain/snow or freezing rain, especially across the northern CWA. Once the storm system begins to taper much colder air on Wednesday/Wednesday night will the precipitation change over to all snow from west to east. Both the EPS and GEFS have an average of all their ensembles of 1.0 to 1.5 inches of precipitation by Friday morning (MSP area) with this system. Only a few members support amounts less than one inch. In terms of snowfall, this again is dependent on when the colder air arrives and how long the precipitation stays before ending. In addition, the EC Extreme Forecast Index suggest a higher probability of significant or abnormally high QPF amount for this system. One of the highest confidence in the forecast is the much below normal temperatures. Temperatures next week will likely average 10 to 20 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Stratocu across WI will continue through Saturday morning. Another batch across northern MN could rotate southeast and clip STC and MSP for a time overnight. Most cigs will be VFR, but some MVFR cigs are possible near EAU. Winds will gradually ease through the period. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. Mon...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. Tue...Mainly VFR. Chance P.M. MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA/JLT AVIATION...Borghoff