704 FXUS64 KBRO 260552 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1252 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate a few high clouds moving across the CWA late tonight. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of tonight into Saturday morning as the 500mb ridge across the western U.S. and the 500mb trough across the eastern U.S. continues to provide subsidence across south Texas tonight into Saturday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light to moderate east to southeast winds continue for a few more hours before becoming lighter and more southerly after 6Z tonight. South winds increase Saturday afternoon. Smoke from ongoing wildfires north of the aerodromes are not expected to impact visibility at the TAF sites due to the winds becoming more southerly tonight. However, reduced visibility is a concern for those flying north of the RGV due to the aforementioned smoke. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): 500 mb ridging will build eastwards throughout the weekend maintain warm and rainfree conditions across the RGV area. As surface ridging moves eastwards the low level flow will shift around from the S-SE and increasing the WAA and low level dewpoints. The increasing low level moisture will likely narrow the max and min temp range throughout Sat Night with the afternoon highs tomorrow possible a degree or two lower and the overnight low nudging up a few degrees. The lower atms layers may moisten up enough by Sat Night to allow for some sct clds to form. Otherwise, generally clr skies will prevail with nil pops. Although the surface dewpoints will be gradually increasing throughout the short term, expect that the diurnal heating effects will still be pretty strong due to the dry soil conditions. The ECMWF remains the warmest of the 3 models with the NAM and GFS coming in cooler for the RGV. Will lean towards a blend of the 3 models as the ECMWF may be a bit overdone for high temps mainly for along and west of the I69C corridor. LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): Long Term forecast hasn't changed much since the previous forecast. Increased temperatures for Monday through Thursday by a couple degrees as the NBM is running a bit warmer as we get closer to next week. Winds for Tuesday and Wednesday also appear to be slightly stronger in this forecast package with gusts up to 35-40 mph and may continue to strengthen as the forecast becomes more certain. Mid-level trough moves in off the west coast and begins to dig and elongate over the Southwest for the beginning of the week. This leads to downstream ridge intensification helping to bring hot and windy conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. As mentioned in the previous forecast, compressional heating will occur on Wednesday before the front passes through making Wednesday our warmest day of the week with high temperatures in the mid 90s for Deep South Texas. No rain in the forecast at this time and with low humidity values in the teens returning with the frontal passage on Wednesday, fire weather conditions may be a concern as well as a Wind Advisory. Highs for Thursday and Friday will still be slightly above normal even after the front in the upper 80s with southerly flow returning Friday which will help to increase our dewpoints. FIRE WEATHER: Currently, very low RH values remain in place over Deep South TX which is maintaining an elevated threat of erratic fire behavior today. Several fires are currently burning across the eastern 3 counties of Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy. Accordingly, an RFD remains in place over the region through 8 PM tonight. The RH values will rebound some tonight but are expected to bottom out once again on Sat with the low level S-SE winds picking up in strength by Sat afternoon. This may push the conditions up close to Red Flag Warning territory for portions of Deep South TX during the late morning and afternoon hours. Accordingly, have posted a Fire Weather Watch for all of Deep South TX and the RGV for tomorrow. MARINE (Tonight through Saturday Night): The PGF will remain pretty weak throughout tonight and Sat allowing for pretty low S-Se winds and low seas to prevail keeping conditions below SCA levels for both the Bay and Gulf waters. The PGF may start tightening up Sat Night resulting in stronger S-SE winds that may push up into SCEC territory mainly for the Gulf Waters. Sunday through Friday: Pressure gradient begins to tighten on Monday and Small Craft Advisories may be needed Tuesday through Thursday due to the incoming cold front. Slight chance of showers with the front on Wednesday for the northern Gulf Waters. Winds and seas begin to relax by Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 60 76 64 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 86 62 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 88 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 91 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 93 56 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 63 71 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT this morning through this evening for TXZ248>257-351-353. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv 61-Castillo/56-Hallman