003 FXUS61 KCTP 251959 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 359 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Winterlike conditions are poised to make a striking return to central PA for the last weekend of March 2022 as it attempts to go out like a lion. Temperatures will trend significantly colder with gusty winds enhancing the chill factor. Rain and snow showers will impact the area into early next week with snow squalls and graupel possible on Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to moderate by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Cloud sheet will break up a little over the SE, but otherwise hold fast. Heights fall quite a bit tonight. A weak trough will swing into the western highlands a little after midnight and then across the rest of the CWA. However, lack of sig moisture and weaker forcing will lead to mainly light precip. The Laurels will get cold enough thru the night to turn the rain showers over to all snow. Some accumulations are possible, mainly on the high ground by morning. Mins will stay above freezing everywhere but the higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Posted a winter wx advy for Somerset county for accumulations of 2-7" thru Sat evening. Two big reasons for the advy are the increasing moisture and lift provided by the upper low which will swing thru gradually, centering over PA in the middle of the day Sat. The heating of the day and instability it brings under the upper low will trigger numerous rain/snow showers. The temps at the sfc will make accums very difficult to occur east of the Allegheny Front. However, there will probably be some graupel/small hail in heavier showers in the central mtns. A big sfc trough/cold front will arrive later in the day, and could be the impetus for a linear squall. The warmish ground temps should keep flash freeze worries low for the eastern half of the area. Maxes will only be in the 30s over the Alleghenies and Laurels, and get close to 50F in Lancaster/Harrisburg/York. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cyclonic flow remains entrenched across central PA on Sunday as another reinforcing shortwave trough kicks through with H50 heights around the 530 dam mark. This will maintain a breezy/biting northwest flow, keeping temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s across much of the Alleghenies as upslope/lake- enhanced snow showers continue through the day and night. Snow showers across the Alleghenies and northern mountains should finally dissipate Monday behind another impulse embedded in the northwesterly flow regime and as surface ridging noses into the Ohio Valley. Despite some gradual clearing for the start of the week, Monday looks to still largely favor well below normal temperatures only topping out in the mid 20s north to mid-upper 30s in the lower Susquehanna Valley as the cold dome remains parked in place. Appreciable height rises look to arrive for Tuesday and beyond as upper ridging spills across the Mississippi Valley, helping to rebound temperatures roughly 10 degrees from those on Monday. Precipitation chances and substantially warmer air return for Wednesday into late week as a warm front lifts through Wednesday out ahead of a storm system moving toward the Midwest. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Stable stratocu covers most of the CWA, and it should stay that way for quite a while. The downslope flow of the SE will give them the best chc to break out/clear. The cigs aren't all that low, with just MVFR cigs in the western terminals. A change comes for BFD and JST later tonight as a trough swings through and could drop them to IFR (cig and vsby) briefly as rain showers mix with and turn to snow. Rain showers are all to expect at the other terminals late tonight with brief reductions into the lower-end of MVFR cigs. Upper low swings across through the daylight hours Sat and will help generate steep lapse rates/instability in the aftn and early evening. This will lead to widespread showers, with mainly SHSN in the west where temps only get a little above freezing, and SHRA to the SE of the Allegheny Front. Some stronger showers in the warmer air could produce some graupel/sleet, or plain snow if they are beefy enough. The risk for snow squalls rises fast in the afternoon and lasts into the early evening, but again, it would be most-possible and risky for the NW half of the area. Upslope flow continues for Sat night into Sun night behind the upper low. This will bring additional IFC and snow accumulations to BFD and JST. Some SN is also possible in longer bands that could reach UNV and AOO Sat night and Sunday. Outlook... Sun...Rain/snow showers and sub-VFR likely across the western highlands, and possible into the central mtns. Mon-Tue...Mainly VFR. Wed...RA/SN moves in from the west, turns to all SHRA. IFR poss, mainly NE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Guseman/Lambert AVIATION...Dangelo/Evanego