869 FXUS64 KBRO 251853 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 153 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...The current dry atms in place over the area will maintain VFR conditions for all 3 RGV airports over the upcoming 24 hours. The surface winds will be relatively light through tomorrow and will be returning from the S-SE through Sat. Smoke from local wildfires may reduce visibilities at the surface and aloft somewhat. But do not believe that vsbys near the RGV airports will be significantly impacted by the smoke/haze at this time due to the S-SE winds carrying the smoke/haze away from the RGV. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with SSW winds gradually turning SE this afternoon, becoming light overnight. Ongoing wildfires and additional wildfire activity may produce isolated pyrocumulus and patchy reduced visibility due to smoke, generally north of the RGV. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): A mid-level ridge of high pressure continues to build across Deep South Texas into this weekend, with a deep warm and dry air mass. Light southerly flow is expected into the afternoon before a seabreeze brings a few easterly gusts through the CWA into early evening. RH values once again tank into the teens and single digits across all of inland Deep South Texas, continuing some fire weather concerns. With the ongoing wildfire activity and lack wind criteria, will issue a Fire Danger Statement for the afternoon and burning of any kind should still be avoided. Very similar conditions are expected on Saturday with low RH values and generally below criteria wind speeds. Highs today warm a bit, especially across the mid to upper RGV in the south to potentially brief SSW flow, reaching into the 90s, with a somewhat cool night into the 50s. Highs on Saturday stay above normal, in the mid to upper 80s east and low to mid 90s west. LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): 500mb ridge across the western United States Saturday will shift eastward across the central U.S. Sunday into Monday as a 500mb low/trough moves into California Monday. At the surface...high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday will shift eastward Sunday allowing the pressure gradient to increase across the lower Texas coast. Breezy conditions will develop across deep south Texas Sunday as a result. The pressure gradient will continue to increase Monday as low pressure develops and deepens along the lee side of the Rockies. This will provide breezy to windy conditions across the Rio Grande Valley and northern ranchlands Monday and Tuesday as the upper level trough across the western U.S. Tuesday enhances the low level jet across the lower Texas coast. Wind advisories will likely be needed across the eastern portions of the CWA Tuesday. A weak cold front is expected to move through deep south Texas Wednesday. Not much in the way of rain chances are expected through the rest of the weekend into early next week. Rain chances should remain northeast of the area Tues night through early Wednesday before the cold front moves through the Rio Grande Valley and northern ranchlands Wednesday. Near normal temperatures will prevail through the rest of the weekend into early next week before becoming above normal Tuesday. The weak cold front Wednesday will provides drier but not cooler air across the CWA. Temperatures will actually be warmer Wednesday compared to Tuesday due to the compressional heating with southwest winds shifting to the northwest. Dry and warm conditions will continue through the rest of the forecast period. MARINE (Now through Saturday): Generally favorable marine conditions are expected through Saturday with low seas. Onshore southeasterly flow Saturday afternoon potentially brings SCEC conditions across the bay. Saturday night through Tuesday...SCEC conditions will develop across the offshore waters Sat night and continue through Monday night as the pressure gradient increases across the western Gulf of Mexico Sat night into Sunday. Moderate to strong south to southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters Sat night through Mon night before increasing Tuesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for the offshore waters Tuesday through Tues night. FIRE WEATHER...A Fire Danger Statement will be issued for today, as relative humidity values once again drop into single digits across Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties, and in the low to mid teens across the remainder of inland Deep South Texas. Wind speeds are expected to remain below Red Flag Warning criteria, but will turn easterly by mid afternoon and potentially gust to near 15 mph. Wildfire activity increased through the afternoon yesterday, with at least one wildfire still active across southern Kenedy County at this time. Similar conditions are expected Saturday, with single digit humidity values across Zapata County and values in the teens along and west of I69E/US77. Burning of any kind should be avoided through this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 56 83 60 76 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 58 86 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 55 88 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 54 91 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 52 93 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 71 63 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for TXZ248>257-351-353. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv Short Term/Aviation...60-Speece Long Term...65-Soria IDSS...67-Mejia