132 FXUS63 KGID 250943 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 443 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 For this morning, clouds and even an isolated rain shower have made keeping up with the temperatures difficult, specifically with overnight lows being warmer than expected in our western counties. Other than that, the main concern for today will be the near critical to critical fire weather conditions. There are more details in the fire weather portion of the discussion, but conditions will be dry and windy, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon and evening. Currently, there is broad upper level ridging over the western CONUS and an area of low pressure dropping southeast out of Manitoba toward the Great Lakes region. As this strengthens through the day, there will be a tightening upper level pressure gradient over the Plains. Toward the surface, a shortwave trough is moving across the central Plains, and that is what is bringing the increased cloudiness and the very isolated showers this morning. Northwest winds will increase mid-morning and into the afternoon with sustained winds up to 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. As that near-surface system moves east, we can expect dry weather for the area through the weekend, and potentially near- critical fire weather conditions across our northern and western CWA Saturday, although winds will not be nearly as strong as today. Since the ridge over the western CONUS will not be moving much during this time, temperatures will be rather steady in the 50s and low 60s today through Sunday. Monday, a low moving into California will finally push the upper ridge eastward over the Plains. This will bring a warmup over the first part of next week. Tuesday we can expect to see likely all locations in our CWA to be in the 70s with several probably reaching into the 80s, particularly in north central Kansas. This will be short-lived however, as the low over California pushes east over the central portion of the country, bringing rain, potentially thunderstorms, and significantly cooler temperatures. Temperatures may well drop from the 80s during the day Tuesday down to near freezing Tuesday night. Precipitation may stick around through Wednesday before clearing out Thursday. Beyond that, model guidance seems to indicate a ridge-trough-ridge pattern to finish off the week and into next weekend, but there is still a lot of time to figure those forecast details out. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Expect VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. Southwest to west winds tonight will become northwesterly early in the morning. A weak front will lead to increased winds and sky cover in the morning, as well as bring VCSH near the terminals. LLWS is also possible at the TAF sites this morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across the area today. A front will move through the region, bringing sustained northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph. Relative humidity values as low as 20 percent are possible across our Nebraska and Kansas counties. The northern areas may have relative humidity values as low as 13 percent. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon today to 9 PM this evening. Near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday, mainly north and west. Relative humidity values may be as low as 20 percent across some of the Nebraska counties, and possibly as low as 16 percent in our far northern counties. However, winds will be much lighter, with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Hickford FIRE WEATHER...Hickford