546 FXUS64 KBRO 250534 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1234 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with southerly to southeasterly onshore flow increasing slightly during the afternoon hours. Ongoing wildfires and additional wildfire activity may produce isolated pyrocumulus and patchy reduced visibility due to smoke, generally north of the RGV. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...Gusty west to northwest winds early this evening will become light and variable later this evening and overnight. Generally light to moderate southeast to south winds are expected Friday afternoon. The very dry airmass in place will maintain VFR conditions for next 24 hours. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): After the intrusion of much drier air today in the wake of a weak cold front, the surface ridging will build steadily eastward in tandem with the 500 mb ridging moving in from the west over the RGV. This will allow the brisk W-NW surface winds to slacken later tonight and become more onshore pretty quickly on Fri. The low level dewpoints will start to rebound late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Despite the rebounding surface dewpoints, RH levels will still plummet across much of the inland portions of Deep South TX on Fri. The very dry nature of the atms will set the stage for pretty wide swings in max/min temps due to good radiational effects. The NAM and GFS are in pretty close agreement for short term temp trends with the ECMWF being the big outlier especially for the MFE area with the ECMWF showing a max of 97 versus the NAM/GFS showing a high in the upper 80s. It's pretty hard to ignore the ECMWF warm trend as this model often handles diurnal heating effects much better than the NAM/GFS. So will stick close to a blend of the 3 models which push the highs up into the lower to mid 90s across the inland areas. The overall confidence is above average at this time, but the high temps tomorrow could be a challenge due to the wide range of model solutions concerning the warmup. LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): A 500mb ridge situates itself over Texas for the weekend which will provide a pleasant rain- free weekend with highs in the mid 80s and lower 90s with southerly winds. By Sunday afternoon, southeasterly winds become breezy allowing the dewpoints to increase slightly making Sunday feel a bit more humid than Saturday. As for the start of next week, Monday and Tuesday look to be windy and warm ahead of the next incoming cold front. As the pressure gradient tightens downstream of the mid-level low pressure system off the west coast, we could see gusts up to 30-35 mph in the RGV. May need a Wind Advisory for those days. Highs for Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be above average with most of the CWA likely reaching the 90s as the ridge intensifies. Next cold front will move through Deep South Texas on Wednesday but is expected to be weak and will only cool us down by a few degrees for Thursday. On Thursday, the highs are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s still. As for rain, no rain is expected in the Long Term forecast at this time other than over the northern Gulf Waters on Wednesday with the incoming front. FIRE WEATHER: The current Red Flag Warning for the entire Deep South TX/RGV area is verifying pretty well as the observed RH values range in the single digits and teens and surface winds gusting to 20- 30 mph. RH values tonight will rebound back to 50-90% overnight as the surface winds decrease due to a weakening PGF. The min RH values will drop once again into the single digits to teens by Fri afternoon. However, the low level winds will decrease quite a bit overnight into Fri. So do not expect Red Flag Warning criteria to be met on Fri. However, an RFD may be necessary to remind folks of the fire dangers even with much lower surface winds. MARINE (Now through Friday Night): After posting the SCA for the lower TX Gulf waters due to the stronger W-SW surface winds earlier this morning, conditions at Buoy020 have flirted back and forth between SCEC and SCA conditions. The winds and seas may remain close to the SCEC/SCA line over the next few hours with the winds dropping off later tonight as the PGF weakens. Will allow the SCA to continue for the Gulf waters through 5 pm. The benign marine conditions will continue through tomorrow night maintaining pretty quiet marine conditions. (Saturday through Thursday): Favorable marine conditions expected for the weekend due to high pressure situated over the area. As the pressure gradient begins to tighten on Monday, Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the remainder of the Long Term period due to the incoming cold front on Wednesday. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms with the front on Wednesday for the northern Gulf Waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 56 78 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 58 86 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 53 86 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 54 90 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 52 92 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 71 64 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv 56-Hallman...Aviation