503 FXUS62 KTAE 242349 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 749 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Saturday] Cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the forecast area this evening, with embedded fast-streaming -SHRA/-RA moving NE thru TLH/VLD. However, conds have been holding steady at VFR as cigs remain around 10kft or higher and P6SM vsbys. Upper cloud thickness gradually diminishes tonight, though a couple stray showers may breeze by DHN/ECP in the pre-dawn hrs. The only concern for tmrw is gusty west winds of 10-14 kts, sustained (gusts in excess of 20 kts at times). && .PREV DISCUSSION [354 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Friday]... One more shortwave and associated weak surface cold front will traverse the tri-state tonight. Some widely scattered showers are possible west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers this evening into the overnight given sufficient moisture and strong PVA ahead of the shortwave. Meanwhile, the more widespread area of precip that has been plaguing the FL Big Bend and I-75 corridor of GA should exit the region shortly after midnight. Low temperatures will be near seasonable levels. A few lingering clouds on Friday morning, otherwise a mostly sunny and dry day is in on tap. High temps within a few degrees of 70, which is slightly below normal. A well mixed boundary layer will promote northwest wind gusts around 20 mph. .SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Tuesday Night]... This period will be characterized by dry weather and moderating temperatures. A dry cold frontal passage occurs on Saturday within deep northwest flow, which prevails through Monday. There will be some clouds at times due to mid and high-level moisture, but it will be tough to squeeze more than a sprinkle out of this. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday and Sunday moderate to between 75 and 80 on Monday, then into the 80s on Tuesday. Otherwise, breezy northwest winds will continue on Saturday and Sunday in the wake of the cold frontal passage. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]... A complex pattern evolves by mid-week with low pressure tracking from the plains states into the upper MS Valley dragging a cold front into the region by Thursday. There is plenty of uncertainty with regard to how this evolves. There is the potential for another round of heavy rain and severe weather. Heavy rainfall is a concern as the front may slow as it increasingly parallels the mid-level flow. It's a bit too early to speculate on severe weather potential, but we are in the climatologically favored time of year. Temperatures will remain above average, and we'll likely add some humidity by Thursday as well. .MARINE... Elevated west to northwest winds are expected through Saturday Night due to a couple of cold frontal passages. In particular, winds will reach advisory levels around 20 knots tonight through early Friday afternoon. Seas will build to 4 to 5 feet just offshore through Saturday Night, then slowly fall on Sunday, with more tranquil boating conditions Sunday Night through Monday Night. Southerly winds will increase with a corresponding rise in seas on Tuesday in advance of the next storm system. .FIRE WEATHER... After some lingering rain into tonight east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers, dry weather will set in Friday through the middle of next week. High dispersions are anticipated area wide Friday, Saturday, and possibly into Sunday due to a well mixed boundary layer and elevated west to northwest transport winds. Afternoon Relative Humidity (RH) values will bottom out in the low to mid-30s away from the gulf coast on Friday, then into the 20s on Saturday over most of the area outside of the Southeast FL Big Bend. The combination of low RH on Saturday and Sunday combined with drying fuels may lead to elevated fire weather conditions this weekend. .HYDROLOGY... Additional rainfall amounts since Wednesday afternoon of 1 to 2 inches have occurred from the lower I-75 corridor of GA into portions of the FL Big Bend. Light rainfall should abate over this area overnight, with a period of dry weather on tap into Wednesday. Early indications are for 1-2 inches of rain next Thursday, with additional amounts possible on Friday. The main concern going forward will be river flooding: At this current time, the Apalachicola at Blountstown, Chipola at Scotts Ferry, Choctawhatchee at Bruce, and Fenholloway at Foley are all in minor flood. The Aucilla River at Lamont is currently at action stage, but is expected to to rise to above flood stage after midnight tonight, with minor flooding expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 49 73 47 73 46 / 20 0 0 0 0 Panama City 58 69 52 71 50 / 20 0 0 0 0 Dothan 47 68 46 70 43 / 10 0 0 0 0 Albany 48 69 47 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 48 72 46 72 44 / 60 0 0 0 0 Cross City 51 72 49 73 47 / 60 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 55 69 52 70 50 / 20 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM...LF AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...LF