800 
FXUS63 KOAX 232016
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
316 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

A strong area of closed low pressure was noted across northern IL
this afternoon. And the moist cyclonic flow, combined with a vort
lobe aloft has allowed an area of rain and snow to continue this 
afternoon with temperatures from 36 to 38. Visibility on surface
observations has briefly dipped to 3 miles at a couple of locations,
but webcams are also not showing any accumulation on the ground. 
Thus, even though it's cloudy, the higher sun angles and ambient 
light and ground warmth are both helping to melt any of the snow 
on the ground. CAMS suggest this initial batch precipitation will 
continue to shift along and south of I80 into early this evening, 
and then south of the area through mid evening. Meanwhile, the 
surface low to the east will continue to spin overnight, and 
lingering slight snow chances for southeast NE and southwest IA 
that could continue through about 15z Thursday. Through all of 
this, we're not really expecting any snow accumulation with snow 
continuing to melt once it hits the ground late this afternoon and
early evening.

Otherwise, after the lingering snow in the morning, the remainder
of the day Thursday look good with highs in the mid 40s to mid
50s.

The only real forecast issues come Friday when northwest winds
increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. The strong winds
will also combine with low relative humidity to produce very high
to extreme fire danger. And northeast NE could potentially drop
below 20% on minimum humidity, so we may have to consider a
potential fire weather watch there, along with a potential wind 
advisory perhaps down to I80. Highs Friday in the Mid 50s. 

A few dry days are expected Saturday through Monday. Temperatures
will be a little cooler Saturday and Sunday, but warm nicely into
the 60s for Sunday and Monday. Some models do hint at a weak,
subtle wave moving thorough Sunday, and the EC even has spotty
precipitation, so that's something we'll keep an eye on. And then
precipitation chances increase again by next Tuesday and Wednesday
as the next strong trough move into the region, but confidence is
also pretty low on the details as there are widely varying
possible outcomes. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Sat imagery and regional obs indicating MVFR cigs are steadily
streaming in from the north on the backside of system centered
over the mid MS vly. At this point, see little reason to expect
any improvement. Short term models indicating some backside RA
will be possible mainly at KOMA/KLNK late this afternoon. Tight
pressure gradient through the day will mean winds remain gusty out
of the NW. Expect winds to subside this evening. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...DEE