256 FXUS63 KFGF 220450 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Precipitation moving into NW has shown signs of weakening in radar and observations. So idea of 1-2 inches of snow in NW MN seems to be lower in chance. UPDATE Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Webcams and observations indicate things going about as planned. Rain as it moves in quickly changes to wet snow as temps drop to 32-33. Large wet snowflakes fall but not in an intense fashion but enough to coat the grass and cars. Suspect as precipitation moves east and meets up with area of precipitation that will be spreading north-northeast from southern MN into north central and northeastern MN overnight/Tues that the far east will stand the best chance for 1-2 inches of wet snow, which is what is forecast. HRRR indicates chances for heavier snow totals east of the fcst area. UPDATE Issued at 708 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Northern stream short wave trough moving ever so slowly east from northern Saskatchewan and into western Manitoba and central ND. Area of rain then rain/snow is slowly making its way eastward as individual elements moving more north in upper level flow ahead of the short wave trough. Radar is showing a bit more precipitation than is really hitting the ground but observations have indicated a rain to start then changing or mixing with snow as temps fall to near dew point values. Temps stay at 32-33 during the snow and webcams indicate some light accumulation, mostly on grassy surfaces. This trend of tracking the precipitation gradually eastward will continue tonight. Updated pops a bit for timing and may have to slow it down again. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Precipitation type and amounts are still the main challenges for the period. Split flow aloft continues and the water vapor loop shows the northern branch trough entering western ND. Elongated trough axis with several low centers stretch from Saskatchewan to the SD/MN border to the Central Plains. Precip over our western counties has been a spotty rain/snow mix, although a bit more of a decent band has started developing over western Eddy county. The CAMs show this band slowly moving into the Red River Valley by this evening, then into western MN overnight. Some of the high res runs and a few of the NBM members have some freezing rain developing over northwestern MN tonight. Model soundings are not very impressive with a warm nose, and think the only chance for any light freezing rain will be if we lose ice in the dendritic growth layer on the backside of the system as it exits the area. Do have a bit of that mixing in, but do not think there will be any ice accumulations over our area at this point. Snow, on the other hand, should start to accumulate at least on the grassy surfaces overnight. There are still decent probabilities of 1 to 2 inches from Lake of the Woods down to Wadena counties, although probabilities of 4 or more have all but disappeared as the drier solutions continue to win out. The models still bring the southern branch shortwave northward into the midwest, but at this point it seems the better moisture will miss our area with the heavier precip setting up further east. Best chances for a tenth or more of liquid accumulation will be north of Highway 2 and along our eastern CWA border. Probabilities of a half an inch or more have dropped to less than 20 percent along the eastern edges of Hubbard and Wadena counties. Will continue to keep an eye on precip as it develops, but at this point think we will mostly see light precip and any winter impacts will be minimal. There could be some lingering precip Tuesday and into Tuesday night as another vort lobe from the northern branch trough swings through, but kept most of the precip limited to the far eastern tier. There will be some decent cold air advection on the backside of the system, but just knocking temps back to slightly above normal instead of well above normal for Tuesday and Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 The long term period has a couple of periods of potentially low impacts, however the probability is low. Wednesday will see breezy, north winds behind the departing early week system. Upper level ridging then sets up to the west and keeps the area dry through late Thursday night into Friday, when another wintry mix is possible with an upper wave breaking down the ridge. A continuation of overnight lows below freezing and daytime highs in the 30s will set up the potential for diurnally driven snow-rain as temperatures warm during the day Friday. Overall, the best forcing and QPF should be north of the border. Ridging to the west continues for the weekend, with another system moving across early next week. Warmer temperatures by Sunday should mean the early week system will be rain as temperatures range from the upper 30s to near 50 on Monday afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 IFR cigs and IFR/MVFR vsys in NW MN overnight into Tues AM but snow/rain area has lessened in coverage and intensity. Lower clouds may linger esp in Bemidji area thru Tuesday. For eastern ND VFR cloud bases or scattered/clear areas. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...Speicher AVIATION...Riddle