082 FXUS65 KABQ 192130 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 330 PM MDT Sat Mar 19 2022 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40, AS WELL AS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN... .SYNOPSIS... An approaching storm system will cause southwest winds to become strong Sunday with widespread critical fire weather conditions, except across north central and northwest areas. Widespread rain and snow showers are forecast Sunday night through Monday night as the storm crosses. Wetting precipitation will favor the mountains and eastern areas. A few to several inches of snow are expected in the mountains east of the continental divide, and potentially also across northeast areas. Strong winds will develop with cold fronts over western and eastern areas Monday, then continue through Tuesday evening across the east. The strongest gusts will impact eastern areas where gusts may potentially reach over 60 mph Monday through at least Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... An upper level ridge will shift east of NM tonight, allowing southwesterly flow aloft to increase as the next upstream trough crosses NV/CA. High cirrus and a few altocumulus/altostratus will also blanket much of the forecast area tonight, helping to keep overnight temperatures on the milder side. As the upstream upper trough moves into AZ and Sonora on Sunday, south southwesterly flow aloft will continue to escalate with 700 mb speeds reaching 30 to 40 kt with the potential to mix substantially higher in several locations Sunday afternoon. As of right now, it appears surface speeds will only hit advisory criteria in a few locations for just an hour or two, so have held off on a wind advisory, but tonight’s shift will need to take one more look and assess the need for one. A few showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm could enter northwestern NM before dusk Sunday as large scale ascent increases. Also of note, pressure falls will also rapidly increase over ID/UT late on Sunday, giving a longer wave upper trough signature over the western ConUS, and attention will need to focus in this ID/UT area going into Sunday night, as this will be an origin and source region for cyclogenesis by early Monday morning. The developing low looks to take shape over or just southeast of the Four Corners by 21/12UTC with precipitation spreading over western and central zones prior to this time. 52 LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... A strong spring storm will cross from the west Monday and Monday night with the potential for a few to several inches of snow accumulation in the northern mountains and across northeast areas, as well as the central mountains, central highlands near Clines Corners, and the south central mountains. Most other locations will probably receive at least some rain and/or snow with the best chance for wetting precipitation east of the central mountain chain. The upper low will draw a Pacific cold front through western areas early Monday with the potential for wind gusts up to 55 mph and significant blowing dust at lower elevations. A strong backdoor cold front will then plunge southward through the eastern plains with wind gusts potentially reaching over 60 mph near NM's border with OK and TX. Blowing dusts will probably occur early on with that front, but precipitation will become widespread across the east with the front probably preventing the blowing dust from getting too bad there. Strong winds will taper off in the west Monday evening, but they will continue across the east (and especially along NM's eastern border) until around midnight Tuesday night. Blowing and drifting snow may make travel difficult to impossible over Raton Pass, and potentially eastward across the area from Raton to Clayton Monday through Tuesday. With this forecast package we are issuing a Winter Storm Watch for Raton Pass where confidence is greatest that winds, temperatures, and snow amounts with become dangerous. Tuesday through Wednesday morning, additional shortwave energy will dig into the base of the exiting storm system causing an upper level trough to linger over the state with a chance for additional rain and snow showers. Accumulations do not look to be very significant, but as mentioned earlier the strong winds will continue at least until midnight Tuesday across the east. After high temperatures around 5-20 degrees below normal on Monday and Tuesday, a broad ridge of high pressure will develop over the western US causing readings to rebound Wednesday through the end of the week. Highs should reach near and above normal areawide starting Friday. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... A warmer temperature regime has taken shape today with breezes staying moderate. However, conditions are very dry with humidity continuing to plummet below 10 percent in most areas this afternoon. With the exception of the far east central plains, humidity values are not expected to recover much tonight into early Sunday morning, and this will set the stage for critical fire weather as much stronger winds are anticipated later in the day Sunday. A swath of dry air aloft will also accompany the strengthening winds aloft, and as this mixes down to the surface through the afternoon, conditions will turn increasingly unstable (Haines values rising to 5 to 6 in many zones). The Fire Weather Watch for the eastern plains of NM will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. This will bring all but the northwestern plateau and the north central mountains under a warning for critical conditions Sunday. Into Monday, a strong low pressure system will overtake NM, bringing colder temperatures and areas of rain and snow to many portions of the forecast area of northern and central NM. Generally light to moderate snow accumulations in the mountains and scattered areas of wetting rainfall in lower elevations will combine with the cooler air to keep RH elevated above critical levels. While strong winds will accompany the low pressure system, especially on Monday into Tuesday, no critical fire weather is being advertised due to the arrival of the cooler temperatures and increase in humidity. Precipitation will wane by the middle of next week (Wednesday into Thursday), and temperatures will start to climb toward or slightly above normal. This will cause humidity to fall again by Thursday and Friday, but fortunately strong winds are not anticipated. 52 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours across northern and central New Mexico as a dry, fair weather ridge of high pressure aloft moves across the area. This feature will shift eastward tonight, leading to increasing winds aloft from the southwest, potentially leading to some low level wind shear before dawn Sunday. Through late Sunday morning and into the afternoon, stronger winds aloft will mix down to the surface with gusts of 25 to 40 kt expected in many locations. 52 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 34 63 30 55 / 0 10 30 10 Dulce........................... 26 58 26 52 / 0 20 50 60 Cuba............................ 31 60 26 45 / 0 5 40 60 Gallup.......................... 27 62 25 48 / 0 10 30 10 El Morro........................ 25 61 20 44 / 0 10 40 30 Grants.......................... 25 65 26 46 / 0 5 40 30 Quemado......................... 26 62 21 45 / 0 5 40 20 Magdalena....................... 35 66 32 48 / 0 0 40 30 Datil........................... 27 62 24 44 / 0 0 40 30 Reserve......................... 23 64 24 53 / 0 5 50 20 Glenwood........................ 33 68 32 57 / 0 5 40 20 Chama........................... 22 51 27 43 / 0 10 50 70 Los Alamos...................... 36 57 33 43 / 0 0 30 70 Pecos........................... 31 59 29 44 / 0 0 20 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 54 29 42 / 0 0 30 80 Red River....................... 21 49 22 37 / 0 5 30 90 Angel Fire...................... 13 52 18 33 / 0 5 30 90 Taos............................ 25 59 30 43 / 0 0 30 80 Mora............................ 30 59 27 41 / 0 0 20 80 Espanola........................ 33 67 34 52 / 0 0 30 70 Santa Fe........................ 30 61 31 45 / 0 0 30 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 28 65 31 47 / 0 0 30 70 Albuquerque Foothills........... 37 66 35 49 / 0 0 40 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 39 68 39 51 / 0 0 30 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 34 70 33 54 / 0 0 30 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 36 68 36 52 / 0 0 30 50 Belen........................... 34 72 38 53 / 0 0 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 35 69 34 53 / 0 0 40 50 Bosque Farms.................... 31 72 34 54 / 0 0 30 40 Corrales........................ 36 70 35 54 / 0 0 30 50 Los Lunas....................... 31 72 36 54 / 0 0 30 40 Placitas........................ 34 66 34 48 / 0 0 40 60 Rio Rancho...................... 37 68 35 52 / 0 0 30 50 Socorro......................... 39 73 40 55 / 0 0 40 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 35 61 28 42 / 0 0 40 60 Tijeras......................... 34 64 30 45 / 0 0 40 60 Edgewood........................ 31 63 30 43 / 0 0 30 70 Moriarty/Estancia............... 23 67 29 45 / 0 0 30 70 Clines Corners.................. 31 61 28 40 / 0 0 20 70 Mountainair..................... 32 65 30 44 / 0 0 30 60 Gran Quivira.................... 33 65 32 44 / 0 0 30 60 Carrizozo....................... 40 69 37 48 / 0 0 40 60 Ruidoso......................... 33 64 32 43 / 0 0 30 70 Capulin......................... 31 62 32 35 / 0 0 10 90 Raton........................... 25 66 31 38 / 0 0 10 80 Springer........................ 28 68 33 41 / 0 0 10 80 Las Vegas....................... 29 63 29 41 / 0 0 10 70 Clayton......................... 37 70 41 42 / 0 0 20 90 Roy............................. 33 66 36 42 / 0 5 10 80 Conchas......................... 33 73 39 48 / 0 5 10 80 Santa Rosa...................... 33 72 38 47 / 0 5 10 80 Tucumcari....................... 39 76 42 50 / 0 0 20 80 Clovis.......................... 34 74 40 52 / 0 0 30 70 Portales........................ 36 75 41 54 / 0 0 30 70 Fort Sumner..................... 36 75 41 53 / 0 0 10 80 Roswell......................... 40 81 44 58 / 0 5 10 60 Picacho......................... 40 75 40 52 / 0 0 10 60 Elk............................. 37 70 37 50 / 0 0 20 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for the following zones... NMZ103>109. Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for the following zones... NMZ227. && $$