379 FXUS64 KEPZ 172338 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 538 PM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW 250 BCMG FEW-SCT150 with SCT-BKN250. Winds will continue to be elevated the next few hours with 15-20 sustained and gusts over 30 knots. Winds will begin to subside in the next few hours (timing in TAF is a little uncertain on how quickly winds will subside) with all sites falling below 10 knots before 5z. Direction will be NW before shifting to NE then E. A large plume of dust, with observed VIS of 1-5 miles, is working its way SSE. Its present trajectory would take it just east of TCS but any westward shift in its current path could bring it across the airport and potentially LRU/ELP. Amendments will be sent as necessary. && .PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022... .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure aloft will move over the Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, with mostly clear skies. After a cool day Friday, temperatures will warm back above normal Saturday. Our next storm system moves in from the Pacific Ocean, reaching Arizona and western New Mexico by late Sunday afternoon. This will produce a few showers over the Gila. This system will be slow to move out, the last of its energy not moving out of our area until Wednesday morning. This will result in strong winds Sunday and Monday, along with lowland rain and mountain snow Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday... Besides some wind, a fairly quiet day across the area, and things will continue to quiet down through the night. Upper low has moved into the TX Panhandle region and with northwest flow over the Borderland. Winds as expected have been strongest over the far east, but as the afternoon goes on, gradient relaxes and should see a quick drop off in winds for most areas. There is a back door cold front that will be moving in from the northeast starting around 00Z and push to about the Continental Divide by 12Z and through the area by mid morning Friday. While there is an increase in low level moisture with the front, don't see any precip occurring except possibly over the eastern slopes of the Sacs where I kept in 10-20 pops for the first few hours. Some mid/high clouds will be moving in from the northwest overnight which will help keep lows up a bit over the northern zones, but should still see overnight lows fall about 10-15 degrees below what they were last night. For Friday, northwest flow aloft continues, but surface high responsible for the back door will weaken and push east allowing winds to turn more southerly through the day. The band of mid/high clouds that move into the north overnight will push south through the day and may hamper warming a few degrees, but should still see highs get into the 60s for the lowlands with 40s and 50s in the mountains. Guidance temps for Fri look a little low given H85 temps will be warming toward 15C-16C and winds turning south. Guidance highs have been running cool recently and have gone on the high end or a couple degrees above. && .LONG TERM...Friday night through Thursday... Upper ridge building in over the Desert Southwest will last into Saturday, with mostly clear skies. Cool post-frontal temperatures on Friday will warm back above normal Saturday. Next storm system, compliments of the Gulf of Alaska, will move into the area latter half of Sunday. Models in general are pretty similar. GFS has been digging the trough furthest south out of the models, but latest ECMWF nearly matches this. Expect a few showers over the Gila Sunday afternoon and evening, spreading to remainder of CWA through Monday. Model PWs not as high as from several runs ago, only increasing to normal levels. Thus rainfall totals may not be as high as previous thinking. Having said that; snowfall for the mountains could still be decent-in the 3-5" range. Winds will be the other impact with gusty winds both Sunday and Monday. Winds on Sunday will approach advisory criteria. Lee side troughing relatively weak with secondary development over the Big Bend/northern Mexico helping keep pressure gradient a bit slacker than what it could have been. Pacific cold front moves through late Sunday afternoon, but night time winds still look to remain a bit higher than normal. Due to upper level pattern and cross mountain flow, Monday's winds likely as strong or stronger than Sunday despite being well post-frontal, due to stronger lee-side troughing. Winds should subside quickly after sunset Monday. Temperatures well above normal Sunday ahead of front dropping to well below normal for Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to show some energy spilling down back side of low Tuesday night into Wednesday so kept mention of precip into Wednesday afternoon before ending. High pressure builds in over the area behind the exiting low on Thursday for clear skies and temperatures warming back to near normal. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cooler temperatures will continue for one more day over the region before starting to rebound for the weekend ahead of the next storm system. Very dry conditions are expected with RH's falling into the 7-15% range Fri/Sun and 5-10% Sat. Winds will remain light through Saturday, but come Sunday, there is a good chance for critical conditions developing along and west of the Rio Grande Valley, but could extend further east with high temps approaching 80 degrees east. Another cool down for early next week and a chance for some precipitation, especially over the Sacs where several inches of snow could fall by late Tuesday. Vent rates will range from poor south to very good north Fri, and generally good to very good Sat. && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 39 67 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 34 62 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 36 68 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 33 64 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 21 44 23 51 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 35 66 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 35 61 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 32 67 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 32 68 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 38 67 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 31 63 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 34 68 37 77 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 33 60 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 35 68 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 35 66 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 35 65 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 28 64 25 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 34 67 31 73 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 35 67 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 33 64 28 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 26 56 29 64 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 25 54 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 22 52 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 21 63 24 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 32 64 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 32 64 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 22 61 25 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 27 62 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 24 68 25 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 23 65 17 67 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 33 62 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 33 71 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 31 68 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 32 69 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 35 68 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ412>417. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110. TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for TXZ056. && $$ 26/17/34