961 FXUS63 KILX 170813 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Expect one more unseasonably warm day today, before the arrival of a storm system beginning tonight. After highs mainly in the lower 70s today, a much larger temperature range is expected Friday, depending on what side of the storm system you are on. Highs on Thursday will range from the 40s northwest of the Illinois River, to the lower 60s south of I-70. While a few showers are possible late this afternoon north of I-72, expect the main period of rain to be moving in after midnight tonight, and persisting into the first half of Saturday. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Latest surface map shows a front draped from northeast Wisconsin into central Kansas early this morning, with low pressure getting organized near the Texas panhandle. Temperatures over the forecast area remain mild at 2 am, still in the upper 40s to mid 50s for the most part. The front should ease into areas near Peoria late this afternoon, but not soon enough to significantly impact temperatures. Went a bit warmer than the previous forecast with highs fairly close to yesterday, mainly lower 70s with potential for near 75 degrees close to Springfield and Jacksonville. A few showers will be possible near the front over the northern CWA late this afternoon and early evening, but more of a gradual ramp-up in PoP's is expected after midnight as the low moves into southwest Missouri. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Synoptic models are in good agreement with the track of the low coming over central Illinois later Friday. This results in a fairly large spread in temperatures over the CWA, with 50s to lower 60s southeast of I-55 and mostly 40s northwest. Best chances of thunder appear south of I-70 where latest SPC Day2 outlook added a marginal risk of severe weather. CAM guidance would favor late afternoon or early evening if this were to occur. However, isolated thunder will be mentioned as far north as Bloomington, close to the low track. Highest precipitation amounts from this system will be north of a Jacksonville to Danville line, with 3/4 to 1 inch appearing likely due to the steadier nature of the rain there. Further south, rain looks to be a bit more scattered south of the front Friday afternoon, but periods of wraparound showers are expected Friday night into the first part of Saturday. While there remains some potential for mixed precipitation west of I-55 late Friday night and early Saturday, the warm and wet ground will not favor any accumulation. With a strong northwest flow as the upper trough swings through early in the weekend, temperatures were lowered into the mid/upper 40s for highs Saturday in most areas. However, upper ridging quickly builds in over the weekend, and 60s return by Sunday. Longer range models continue to advertise development of another decent storm system over the central U.S. early next week. Ensembles are in reasonable agreement for this far out in range, though the European ensembles are a tad slower than the GFS or Canadian ones. Rain chances are high, but timing at the moment does not appear to favor a significant risk of stronger storms. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL airports through much of the 06Z TAF period. A cold front over central parts of WI/IA/KS extends sw to 999 mb low pressure along the northern NM/TX border. The latest CAMs take the cold front se toward the IL river by late Thu afternoon and stalls out just east of I-55 early Thu evening as low pressure lifts into east central/ne OK by 06Z/Fri. Most of the models keep it dry over central IL through Thu evening with rain showers moving into central IL during overnight Thu night after this TAF period. Mid/high clouds to increase from the west through this morning with broken VFR cumulus clouds moving in during Thu afternoon. MVFR ceilings possible later Thu evening over PIA and possibly as far se as I-55. South to SSE winds 4-8 kts overnight to be south to SSW under 10 kts Thu, and turn NE behind the cold front along and west of I-55 and could see gusts 15-20 kts later Thu evening. DEC and CMI may stay in warm section through Thu evening as winds veer more SE 5-10 kts. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...07