970 FXUS63 KILX 161529 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1029 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 242 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 A couple more days of unseasonably mild weather is on tap, with highs near or above 70 degrees in central Illinois. However, a cold front will begin to move into the area Thursday afternoon, keeping temperatures a bit lower northwest of the Illinois River. Rain will become widespread over the region Thursday night, as the front interacts with low pressure moving put of the southern Plains. With significantly cooler air being drawn into the area once the low passes us, there is potential for some mixed rain and snow Friday night and early Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1029 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Pesky mid-level clouds remain present across roughly the I-55 corridor this morning. The latest high resolution guidance suggests these lingering a little longer than originally anticipated before scattering out by mid to late afternoon. Adjusted the sky grids to reflect this change. Thankfully, the clouds don't seem to be impacting temperatures all too much with most areas already in the middle 50s to low 60s as of 10 AM. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Just a few mid level clouds bubbling up over central Illinois early this morning, though humidity cross sections suggest some increase in clouds near the Illinois River toward sunrise and persisting into the afternoon. This is not expected to be a major factor in keeping temperatures down, as we remain quite mild for mid March. With temperatures the last couple days running a couple degrees above projections, and southwest flow increasing today, will go with a 50/50 blend of the NBM 75th percentile high temps and the existing forecast, bumping highs into the lower 70s over the entire forecast area. Clouds are expected to increase overnight ahead of the next system, and this combined with southerly winds should keep lows on the mild side, around 45-50 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave along the Alberta/Saskatchewan border, with the early makings of our next storm system in a wave near Las Vegas. This southwest low will strengthen over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle area on Thursday, with the surface front associated with the northern wave arriving in the northern CWA Thursday afternoon. The GFS has been very persistent the last few runs with bringing the low into central Illinois Friday afternoon, and the European and Canadian models are finally trending to this solution, though the NAM remains a tad further south. This would increase the potential for some thunder over the south half of the CWA on Friday, though there are also a few signs of isolated thunder potential immediately behind the front Thursday afternoon. For now, will keep the Friday mention as isolated. General theme remains with very high rain chances Thursday night through Friday. A deep and broad upper trough with this storm system will swing through the region Friday night and Saturday. The models have been trending toward a fairly large area of deformation type precipitation on the back side of the low, likely persisting through at least Saturday morning. The longer that occurs, the better chance there is of getting some mixed rain/snow into the area. Will increase the precip chances Friday night and Saturday, especially over the eastern CWA, though any accumulation appears minor at this point with the wet and warmer ground. Looking further out in time, an upper ridge builds across the central U.S. during the weekend, so the colder weather on Saturday quickly gives way to 60s again by Sunday. Another fairly large storm system is projected to develop over the Rockies early next week. The GFS and European deterministic models show a fairly large range in their solutions -- somewhat similar to how our imminent storm system has been looking the last few days -- so forecasts toward that period trend more toward ensemble means, and the highest rain chances Monday night and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 524 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cloud deck around 6000 feet has expanded over central Illinois as of late, and should gradually shift northward this morning before scattering out. Southerly winds increase to around 10 knots or so by midday, then ease back a bit toward 00Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NMB SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Geelhart