689 FXUS63 KGLD 161124 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 524 AM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 439 AM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA having a mostly westerly flow aloft being underneath a ridge with a trough off to the west. Satellite imagery shows some high clouds over the far northern portions of the CWA with some good cloud cover over the BOU and CYS areas that is moving eastward that probably will reach the CWA during the day. Forecast models depict the front part of the developing trough moving over the CWA by the evening hours turning the upper air flow southwesterly. At the surface, a cold front looks to enter into the CWA in the morning hours and move through during the day. By the evening hours, precipitation chances start moving into the western portions of the CWA associated with a pretty much vertically stacked low to the south of the CWA near the NM/OK/TX border. These precipitation chances expect to increase going into the night and spread eastward across the CWA. While P-type begins to be mainly rain on Wednesday, snow begins to mix in around midnight for areas along and west of the CO border with snow becoming the main P-type in the far western portions. Expected QPF for this portion of the system on Wednesday looks to be a few tenths at most for the western portions of the CWA. Daytime high temperatures look to be between the upper 50s and lower 70s while Wednesday's overnight lows look to be between the upper 20s and upper 30s. Going into Thursday, forecast models continue to show the trough making an eastward advance with the CWA having a southwesterly flow aloft. During the afternoon hours, an upper air low looks to develop in the base of the trough over the NM/OK/TX border. As this low passes by the CWA in the south in the evening, the upper air flow for the CWA becomes southerly. At the surface, the precipitation chances expect to continue during the morning and afternoon hours of Thursday. With this system the western half of the CWA looks to see a possible few tenths to an inch of snowfall with areas around Flagler, CO seeing a possible 2 to 3 inches. Low confidence at this time to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Kit Carson county due to this localized nature though this may chance. Total forecasted QPF for the Tri-State area from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon looks to range between a few tenths in the eastern portions to just over a half inch in the far western portions. Precipitation chances expect to taper off from north to south during the afternoon hours. There are also some gusty winds expected on Thursday afternoon with northerly winds gusting up to around 35 kts as there is about 10mb pressure chance seen at the surface in about a 12 hour period. Fire weather shouldn't be a concern due to the precipitation chances. Thursday's daytime highs expect to range between the 40 and 50 degrees followed by overnight lows in the upper teens to upper 20s. On Friday morning, models show the in the base of a weak trough with a weak ridge just to the west as the low moves farther east across OK and a larger subtropical trough develops. The upper air flow turns northwesterly in the afternoon as the weak ridge moves eastward over the CWA. At the surface, the CWA looks to be stay dry. As mentioned in the previous discussion, cloud coverage looks increase due to a shortwave seen aloft and inhibit how warm temperatures may warm during the day. Daytime highs for Friday look to be between 50 and 60 degrees while overnight lows expect to be in the lower to upper 20s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 In the extended period GFS/ECMWF models have an upper level ridge developing back across the region by Saturday into Sunday ahead of the next system. Models having differences with the system developing late Sunday into Monday but trending slower and further south solution. This would have a significantly difference on temperatures and precipitation. On Saturday a surface trough is projected across the CWA by 12Z. On Sunday a surface trough is across eastern Colorado region. On Monday a surface cold front is projected to be across the CWA. Confidence lower on location of system by Monday. On Tuesday the front is expected to be across eastern the Kansas region. Elected to increase temperatures slightly Sunday and increase precipitation chances slightly Sunday Night into Monday for now to accommodate for this system. We will need to monitor and likely have adjustments as this system develops at the end of the weekend into early next week. Precipitation chances continue on Tuesday before system moves east. Looks like we could get some much need precipitation late Sunday night into Tuesday. We will have to continue to monitor fire weather potential this weekend mainly on Sunday. Currently RH values on Sunday are slightly above criteria but a day to monitor with the increased winds. Temperatures in the extended forecast are expected to be warmer from by Sunday and then cool down with the system moving through on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be mainly in the upper 50s to upper 60s on Saturday. Temperatures will increase to the upper 60s to middle 70s on Sunday. On Monday high temperatures decrease to lower 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures continue to decrease on Tuesday with highs only reaching the lower 40s to middle 50s. Expect overnight low temperatures to be mainly in the 30s Saturday Night. Sunday Night low temperatures will forecast to be in the middle 30s to middle 40s. By Monday night overnight low temperatures decrease to the middle 20s to middle 30s. Main concern in the extended forecast at this time is the strong system approaching late on Sunday into Monday and then exiting region late on Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 524 AM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 KGLD begins the 12Z TAF period with northwesterly winds around 8 kts with northerly LLWS of 40 kts at 2 ft. At 14Z, KGLD sees the winds increase to around 13 kts before seeing gusts around 21 kts begin at 15Z. Winds at KGLD become northerly around 12 kts at 21Z followed by chances for vicinity showers beginning at 03Z with north-northeasterly winds at 12G20 kts. By 10Z, MVFR conditions come to KGLD with an overcast cloud deck at 3 kft, light rain, and northerly winds at 15G24 kts. KMCK expects to stay with VFR conditions throughout the 12Z TAF period starting with variable winds around 5 kts that become northwesterly around 10 kts at 15Z. By 18Z, KMCK winds look to become northerly around 13 kts. At 03Z, KMCK sees an overcast cloud deck lower to 7 kft with winds slowing to around 9 kts before the winds speed up to 14G24 kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...076