503 FXUS64 KOUN 152332 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 632 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Upper level ridging will keep things stable in the short term. Clear skies and comfortable conditions are expected to continue through the rest of Tuesday, as high temperatures climb into the 60s, lows will range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s, and winds remain light and will become southerly during the overnight hours. Winds will become strengthen throughout the day on Wednesday, with gusts likely throughout western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Highs will continue to increase, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s with 80s possible in northwestern Oklahoma as well as western north Texas. With the dry conditions in addition to the clear skies, high temperatures, and winds, fire weather will be the primary concern throughout the day on Wednesday. Zwink && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Primary concern in the long term will be the two upcoming chances of showers/storms. A deepening upper level trough will make it's way towards the region, with an associated surface cyclone and cold front arriving Thursday afternoon. Widespread showers are expected to develop behind the cold front, with most of the precipitation falling north and east of the surface cyclone, and western north Texas likely seeing little precip. Some thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front, with the best chance of thunderstorms mainly in southeastern Oklahoma. Temperatures will drop back to near normal amounts behind the front on Friday. Upper level ridging and the return of southerly surface winds will result in a warming trend starting Saturday through the weekend into early next week. Another upper-level longwave trough will move through the region Monday night through Tuesday, which currently looks to bring widespread beneficial rainfalls to the region. Zwink && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A light and variable wind tonight will become south tonight and increase Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 42 76 51 72 / 0 0 0 40 Hobart OK 38 78 47 69 / 0 0 0 30 Wichita Falls TX 40 81 50 77 / 0 0 0 20 Gage OK 40 81 40 58 / 0 0 0 60 Ponca City OK 40 77 48 70 / 0 0 0 50 Durant OK 43 74 49 75 / 0 0 0 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for OKZ009-014>016-021-022-033>037. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ083>085-087-088. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...06