878 FXUS63 KFGF 151813 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 113 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 The thickest clouds are tracking along the highway 2 corridor early this afternoon, with the most sun over southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Temperatures were warmest across the tree covered region of our Minnesota FA, where Bemidji was the high at 43 degrees. Models had been showing the potential for a few afternoon or evening sprinkles, but so far nothing has been showing up (only mid level clouds). UPDATE Issued at 1008 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 High level clouds continue to push east-southeast across the FA, although mainly the northern half. Initially this looks to bring filtered sunshine to the area, but eventually some areas will become mostly cloudy. Temperatures are already near or above 32 degrees at most locations, so the slow melt is beginning. Will keep an eye on the temperature rise today, but still think with the clouds across the north, the south will be a little warmer. These trends are already covered in the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 701 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Skies mainly clear at dawn but there will be increased high clouds through the day from the northwest. Southwest winds outside of the immediate valley kept temps steady thru the night and in higher terrain west edge of the valley temps have held above freezing all night, esp Walhalla area. Just watching temps today to see how they respond as compared to guidance. The light precipitation this evening looks pretty darn weak and mostly from mid clouds, so not expecting much. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Today is the start of our warm up as afternoon temperatures will reach above freezing in all areas. Mid/lower clouds exiting far eastern fcst area at 08z and skies generally clear over most of the fcst area. Upstream shows high clouds which will move over the area daytime today. But some solar as well. South winds 10-15 kts along with about a 4C rise in 850 mb temps will bring warmer temps to the area. Exactly how warm it will get as we head into this warmer period is uncertain. Snowcover will play a huge role, but also for the Red River valley particularly some fields have been blown nearly free of snow so black soil will aid in some warming. Eastern fcst area as well uncertain on warmth as pine trees along with March sun aid in warming (Bemidji/Park Rapids). For today stuck near NBM (model blended) values. HRRR sfc temps warm up Bemidji/Park Rapids to the 50s today, with 38-40 in snowcover/less tree areas. 500 mb flow is more zonal aloft and there is a weak short wave that will move east along the Manitoba/North Dakota border this evening. Mid level moisture with this wave along with it being on the edge of warm advection at the 850 mb level will bring a chance for light precipitation. Wave is fast moving and moisture below 700 mb not great so impacts from any precipitation will be minimal. And with it coming thru this evening sfc temps do look to be in the 33-35 degree range. Some risk of 31-32 degrees in a few spots mainly Pembina to Warroad...so fcst will call for a chance of light rain/freezing rain. But amounts look very light....trace maybe 0.01. Higher chances do look to be north of the border where moisture layer is deeper. For the rest of the area a dry night ahead and for most of the night temps will stay above freezing. Another upper wave and a bit stronger sfc low will track east through central Saskatchewan into central Manitoba overnight tonight and a sfc trough will move through late tonight/Wed AM. No precipitation with it...but west wind shift for daytime Wednesday a favorable west wind and 850 mb temps +3 to +6C will bring highs a few degrees warmer than on Tuesday. Once again will have to see how NBM and other temperature guidance handles the snowpack and trees. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Impacts across the extended period will be minimal from Thursday through the weekend. Warmer temperatures will be the primary focus, possibly marking the beginning of at least some gradual melting of the snow pack through week's end. Highs are expected to reach into the 30s each day, perhaps even into the 40s where cloud cover remains minimal. Overall, a generally quiet week with tranquil weather conditions. There are a number of ensemble members and medium-range models hinting at the possibility of a more active period starting late this weekend and heading into the following week. With the current guidance, confidence is quiet low in reference to the potential development of an upper low that could impact the region. There is a rather large range of potential outcomes that are attached to each iteration of the model runs, but the pattern does favor the development of a Colorado Low type of system. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Winds are forecast to remain breezy this afternoon out of the south to southwest. VFR conditions will persist into evening hours for northeastern ND and VFR for the rest of the area. FG is possible tomorrow morning for KDVL and may trek as far south as KGFK. Confidence for FG is greater at KDVL, however confidence is low for KGFK so FG has not include in the 18Z TAFs. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Godon SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...Lynch AVIATION...99