334 FXUS64 KOUN 150929 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 429 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 429 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Lingering showers across southeast Oklahoma will slowly move east out of the area as the mid-level storm system exits this morning. A few sprinkles or light showers will also be possible across central Oklahoma early this morning, but these are expected to dissipate within the next few hours. Clouds will decrease through the day as well. With a good amount of sunshine today, high temperatures are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday in most areas despite the passage of the cold front. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Mid-level ridging will continue to push off to the east during the day Wednesday as the next trough moves into the West Coast. At the surface, southerly flow is expected to strengthen as a lee trough deepens throughout the day Wednesday. Dry vegetation and RH values in the teens, in addition to the gusty winds, will foster Near Critical fire conditions across western OK and adjacent parts of western north TX. Elevated fire concerns could pose a threat as far east as I-35 by mid afternoon Wednesday. The aforementioned trough is expected to deepen and mid-level flow will strengthen before making its way into the Southern Plains Thursday. A surface low will strengthen Thursday afternoon across southwestern OK. A cold front will follow in its wake, and gusty southerly flow will over spread most of the area ahead of the low. Showers are possible across the area Thursday and a few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon east of I-35. Model soundings are suggesting 1000 J/kg of instability, coupled with 50kts of deep- layer shear, so some marginally severe storms appear to be possible. A cold front and northerly flow behind the low, will overspread the area through Friday and highs will only get into the low 60s. A warm up is expected this weekend as mid-level ridging dominates the Plains. This warm up will carry through at least the early part of next week before another cold front moves in. Medium range models suggest another round of widespread showers and potentially a few thunderstorms Monday early morning into Tuesday. With the multiple chances of rainfall in the long term, it appears that the fire risk across the area will be muted. Bunker && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Winds will continue out of the north throughout the forecast period. Some MVFR cigs are still expected to move north to south over north central and central OK late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Skies will generally clear from west to east after 15Z. A few showers will be possible overnight into early morning but confidence is too low right now to mention in TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 42 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 67 37 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 70 41 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 68 41 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 67 40 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 68 43 74 49 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...03