248 FXUS66 KSGX 150422 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 922 PM PDT Mon Mar 14 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Generally fair and mild this week with mostly clear skies, warm days and cool nights. A brief Santa Ana pattern will bring gusty northeast winds to the mountains and passes Thursday morning. A trough of low pressure will bring colder weather and a chance for precipitation this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Clear this evening with inland temperatures 5 to 15 degrees higher than at this time yesterday. Sfc pressure gradients are trending offshore but only light breezes are being generated. High resolution models show the potential for some coastal low clouds later tonight but it seems unlikely that there will be much coverage. From previous discussion... A series of fast-moving weak shortwaves will move inland across California this week. It will be a warm week with highs 5 to 10 degrees above average each day. Nights will be cool/cold with clear skies and a dry airmass in place. Onshore pressure gradients and westerly winds ahead of each shortwave will shift to offshore pressure gradients and northeast winds behind each shortwave. The strongest offshore push will be Wednesday night and Thursday morning when Santa Ana winds from 15-30 mph will gust 40-50 mph in the mountains and passes, strongest in the Inland Empire below the Cajon Pass, the Santa Ana Mountains, and through the San Gorgonio Pass. The weekend will be colder with a chance of precipitation. A strong Pacific trough will deepen along the West Coast Saturday and then cross Southern California Saturday night and Sunday. Numerical model guidance has trended weaker and farther inland with this trough, reducing the availability of moisture. Model consensus is showing generally light rain amounts of 0.01-0.15" in the coastal and valleys zones, and 0.15"-0.35" on the west facing mountain slopes. It'll turn cooler and windy over the weekend. Highs Saturday will be 5-10 degrees lower than the highs we will see Tuesday through Friday. Sunday will be noticeably colder and windy day with coastal and valley highs from 62-69, mountain highs from 40-50, high desert highs from 55-60, and lower desert highs in the 70s. Sunday will be a windy day in all areas from the coast to the desert. && .AVIATION... 150400Z....Mostly clear skies will prevail through Tue evening. Within 5 miles of the San Diego County coast, patchy low stratus/fog will be possible mainly 09Z-16Z Tue, with cigs likely 700 ft MSL or lower and local vis below 3 miles in FG/BR. However, confidence is low for timing at any airport, including KSAN. && .MARINE... Stronger winds are likely late Tuesday night through Wednesday night, when gusts near 25 knots and choppy seas of 6 to 8 feet are possible over the outer waters. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday. && .BEACHES... Elevated surf and strong rip currents will occur Tuesday night through Thursday when some sets up to 6 feet will be possible. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation will not be needed today. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...PG AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Maxwell