438 FXUS61 KBOX 122037 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 337 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Intensifying low pressure lifting into the Maritimes will allow lingering rain showers to change to snow showers before ending later this evening. Otherwise, strong northwest winds and unseasonably cold temperatures follow tonight. Dry Sunday, but cold and blustery, especially in the morning. Dry weather will prevail much of next week along with warmer than normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 335 PM Update... * Lingering light snow showers early this evening * Windy with wind chills dropping to -5 to 10 above by daybreak Drier air has invaded the upper levels of the atmosphere given the track of the track of the mid level low pressure systems. This has allowed precipitation to have diminished considerably in intensity over the past 1-2 hours. That begin said; cyclonic flow around the rapidly intensifying coastal storm was resulting in lingering light rain/snow. Ptype has basically transitioned to mainly light snow/sleet northwest of I-95. The transition to a brief period of light snow/sleet will occur over the next few hours across eastern MA/RI. We actually may see the light snow showers increase a bit in areal coverage over the next couple hours. This a result of a vigorous upper level trough/cold pool aloft. Any additional accumulations should just be a coating to 1 inch. Perhaps a few spots in the Berks, western Worcester Hills/northeast CT Hills see a bit over an inch given some upslope enhancement. Slippery spots certainly possible this evening as temps drop below freezing; so we did continue the Winter Weather Advisory in this region. Otherwise, expect mainly dry weather by late evening and into the overnight hours. The main story will be the rapidly intensifying storm lifting into the Maritimes as a sub 970 mb low pressure system. This will produce a strong pressure gradient and result in northwest 40-50 mph wind gusts much of the night. Wind Advisories are posted for the entire region. In addition...quite the cold airmass for mid March standards will work into the region. Low temps by daybreak will mainly be in the middle teens to the lower 20s. Wind Chills by daybreak will down between -5 and 10 above zero. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Sunday... * Plenty of sunshine but quite breezy/cold on Sunday A ridge of high pressure gradually builds to the south of the region. The strong pressure gradient will gradually weaken as the day wears along. Still expect westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, but some 40 mph gusts still possible across the coastal plain in the morning. Despite plenty of sunshine, temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Afternoon highs will be in the 30s, but it will still feel colder given the gusty winds. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights... * Spring fever in the air next week with generally quiet weather and above normal temperatures, especially away from the immediate coast. Enjoy! Details... Following a quick-hitting shot of snow and cold this weekend, 925mb temps moderate to above 0C by Monday morning. Sunday evening will see temps drop off quickly initially but as the sfc high moves offshore, SW flow will increase with temps stabilizing and even rising towards daybreak. And that will be the start of the first extended stretch of spring-like weather this year. Indeed, overall upper air pattern deampflies next week, with flow regime becoming more zonal, flooding the CONUS with Pacific air. 850 mb temp anomalies from both GFS and Euro ensembles, support warmer than normal temps aloft combined with WSW flow. This will support many days next week featuring highs in the 50s and 60s, especially away from the immediate south coast. For reference, typical highs for middle of March are in the mid 40s. In fact, the CPC 6 to 10 day outlook has 90 percent probability of above normal temps across the Mid Atlantic into New England. A clipper system passing to the north swings a weak cold front late Tue into Wed but other than that, the much of the work week looks dry. Forecast wise, largely stuck to the NBM except to raise daytime highs on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. H5 ridge builds stronger as the week goes on and given pre green-up and downsloping SW flow, local research has shown that temps almost always overperform in such setups. So used 75th percentile NBM to yield highs in the low 60s Tue/Thu and upper 60s (we should break 70 deg) on Fri. Apart from the weak system late Tue into early Wed, much of the week should feature very pleasant conditions with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Localized sea breezes given the disparity between land and ocean temps will keep coastal locations 10 to 15 degrees cooler, however. A backdoor cold front also couldn't be ruled out, so didn't go overly bullish with the temps at this time frame, especially for late week. But one usually doesn't see CPC put out a 90 percent probability of above normal temps in the 6 to 10 day outlook. Then a slow-moving cold front approaches from the Great Lakes giving us the next chance of precipitation Saturday. At this point, looks like a mostly rain event perhaps changing to a bit of snow as colder air moves in but given we are still so far out, mostly stuck to the NBM. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Tonight...High Confidence. Lingering light rain and snow showers will change to all snow showers through early evening in most locations before ending. Some lingering MVFR with localized IFR conditions possible into the early-mid evening hours. Otherwise...conditions improve to VFR in most locations by midnight. WNW wind gusts of 35-40 knots persist. A few brief gusts up to 45 knots possible. Sunday...High Confidence. VFR with W wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots with the strongest winds through early afternoon before gradually diminishing. KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA. Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight and Sunday...High Confidence. West to northwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots are anticipated into Sunday as a rapidly intensifying coastal storm lifts into the Maritimes this evening. Given the strong pressure gradient...Gale Warnings posted for all waters through Sunday afternoon. The strongest of those winds will be tonight into early Sunday with very rough seas. Freezing spray is also expected late tonight into early Sunday. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ002>004. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ002-003. MA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ002>006-008>013-017- 018-020-021-026. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-014>016-019- 022>024. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MAZ002>004-008>012-026. RI...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ230>237-250-251- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/Chai NEAR TERM...Frank SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...Chai AVIATION...Frank/Chai MARINE...Frank/Chai