302 FXUS62 KJAX 120832 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 332 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR... .NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]... Convection continues to expand and lift northward ahead of the main cold front which is still northwest of the area from east central GA to the FL panhandle. Episodes of embedded strong to severe storms are possible through the morning hours today both separate zone of convection over the area at this time and with a pre-frontal squall line. Isolated tornadoes are possible and tornado watches are in effect. The cold front will move rapidly east and southeast today with the frontal convection along it with threat of severe weather possible for all counties. The threat of severe should end by about noon or 1pm as the front clears the area from northwest to southeast. The heavy rainfall threat is now lower due to the rapid movement of convection but will not end until showers and storms move offshore. High pressure will build from the west behind this front. The gradient between the departing front and building high will result in gusty winds behind the front as well. Wind advisory remains in effect today to highlight the potential for gusts as high 35-45 mph both ahead of but mainly in the wake of the very strong cold front. Initially strong pressure rises in the wake of the front of 3 to 5 mb. Warmest temps of the day will be this morning as the temps fall in the wake of the cold front. Expecting temps to range from the upper 40s to the upper 50s by 4 PM. Tonight, records lows look possible (see climate below). Still looking at a solid for a freeze tonight and have upgraded the freeze warning for much of the area. In fact, a couple spots over inland southeast GA may get to hard freeze but areal coverage is too low to go with a hard freeze warning at this time based on latest forecast. The other uncertainty is the far southeast zones where winds and affects of warmer St Johns River basin may keep things a bit more mixed so kept a freeze watch for this area for the time being. However, this freeze watch area is also were we could meet wind chill advy criteria as winds stay close to at about 10-12 mph but let next shift take another look at this. In any case, it will be quite cold Sunday morning as 5-10 mph winds and the cold temps support wind chills in the 20s! .SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]... High pressure over the region on Sunday moves off to the northeast into the western Atlantic by Monday. Onshore flow develops with winds shifting to southeasterly by Monday afternoon. This will usher in low-level moisture and begin a warming trend. Mostly dry conditions prevail Sunday into Monday. However, a coastal trough will develop on Monday which could bring a few sprinkles to the coast. Highs will be below normal in the mid 50s/low 60s on Sunday and upper 60s/low 70s on Monday. Clear skies, light winds and a slight increase in low-level moisture will allow for patchy to areas of frost to develop across inland SE GA and northern parts of Suwannee Valley early Monday morning. Lows will be relatively warmer than Sunday morning in the low 30s to upper 40s. Overnight lows increase to the 50s Monday night. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]... Tuesday into Wednesday, a low pressure system moves through the Gulf coast states, over the area and then lifts up the eastern seaboard. This low will bring another round of rainfall which could exacerbate any flooding leftover from the current system moving through. A return of severe weather may also be possible Tuesday into Wednesday with SPC placing SE GA and NE FL in a Slight risk for severe storms. Uncertainty lies on whether our area can recover quickly enough to support severe weather due to the recency of the arctic airmass that was over the region. High pressure will build from the west Wednesday night through Thursday. Another system approaches the area from the northwest on Friday to reintroduce low-end rain chances. Temperatures warm to above normal through the week. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Sunday] Showers are gradually shifting northward and will be ending at SGJ and GNV within the hour. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible within the showers between 06Z-12Z, but chances are too low to include TS for now. A cold front will bring thunderstorms southeast across all TAF sites between 11Z-15Z with visibilities as low as 2SM at times and lower ceilings. Strong wind shear is expected ahead of and along the front, starting around 08Z. After the front passes, VFR conditions are expected and winds will shift to become northwesterly and remain elevated and gusty through the day. Winds will begin to decrease around 00Z and continuously decrease through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... A strong cold front is marching eastwards toward the coastal waters early this morning and will pass through area waters between 8 AM and 1 PM. Windy southerly wind will shift to northwest after frontal passage with gale conditions expected. A line of strong to severe storms will be possible with this frontal boundary. An isolated tornado is possible embedded in the line. Strong high pressure will build from the northwest late today, then toward the north tonight, and northeast on Sunday. As the high pressure weakens and moves away form the area Sunday night and into Monday, a coastal trough is likely to form and produce some shower activity. Another area of low pressure will approach from the west early Tuesday, and move through the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday, providing for unsettled weather. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents today and low to moderate risk going into Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... Additional rainfall amounts near the 1-2 inch range are forecast which will continue to support some threat of flooding rainfall. The main threat of heaviest rainfall amounts is shifted a bit northward from Live Oak to Charlton county. Current flood watch remains in effect but main threat looks to be Suwannee Valley area, including Live Oak, and Lake City. Locally rainfall and flooding still remains possible elsewhere over parts of southeast GA, and in other locations with poor drainage or in urban areas through this morning. Water level rises on the Sante Fe River prompted river flood warnings at Worthington Springs and Oleno State Park. These levels peak solidly in minor flood stage in the next 2-3 days. Additional rises on other rivers but for the time being they go to action stage. Please monitor for additional updates and possible other river flood warnings. && .CLIMATE... Current record lows for Sunday... SSI 32 deg (1998) AMG 23 deg (1998) JAX 32 deg (1998) GNV 29 deg (1998) CRG 35 deg (1998) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 62 25 54 34 66 / 40 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 31 52 44 65 / 80 0 0 0 10 JAX 71 30 55 42 67 / 100 0 0 0 10 SGJ 73 35 56 49 68 / 100 0 0 10 10 GNV 71 29 60 42 71 / 100 0 0 0 10 OCF 74 29 62 44 73 / 100 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST to 10 AM EDT Sunday for Baker- Bradford-Central Marion-Coastal Nassau-Eastern Alachua- Eastern Marion-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-Northern Columbia-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Trout River-Union- Western Alachua-Western Clay-Western Duval-Western Marion- Western Putnam. Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for Baker-Bradford-Central Marion-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns-Eastern Alachua- Eastern Clay-Eastern Marion-Eastern Putnam-Gilchrist- Hamilton-Inland Flagler-Inland Nassau-Inland St. Johns- Northern Columbia-South Central Duval-Southern Columbia- Suwannee-Trout River-Union-Western Alachua-Western Clay- Western Duval-Western Marion-Western Putnam. Flood Watch until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Bradford- Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Eastern Alachua-Eastern Clay- Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-Northern Columbia-South Central Duval-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Trout River-Union- Western Alachua-Western Clay-Western Duval. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for Eastern Clay-Eastern Putnam-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns- South Central Duval. GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST to 10 AM EDT Sunday for Appling- Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn- Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis- Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware- Wayne-Western Charlton. Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton. Flood Watch until 10 AM EST this morning for Clinch-Echols- Southern Ware-Western Charlton. AM...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. &&