202 
FXUS63 KOAX 102312
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
512 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

SHORT TERM

Snowfall fell short of forecasts across the area today, but there
were some significant reports along the KS state line with 
widespread 5-12" south of the border. The best Nebraska could do 
was 7.0" at Du Bois, 6.0" at Falls City and 5.0" at Fairbury. The 
Omaha metro settled for 0.2" and we went with a trace here in 
Valley. 

Let the winter weather advisory expire at 3pm despite some 
reports of 3 mile visibility continuing in southwest Iowa as of 
2:30 PM. Road conditions there are improving according to IA DOT 
and the trailing edge of the snow continues to slip south. 

High temps today will generally meet or fall just shy of the
freezing mark, leaving any snow melting to the increasingly
powerful March sun. Another cold night is in store with temps
slipping into the teens. Winds will be light and variable as the 
high pressure ridge slips through the area from north to south.
This will help clear skies. Most locations will report morning 
temps very close to of those this morning. 

Precipitation looks unlikely through the 7 day forecast so we turn
our attention to temperatures and the fire danger they help
produce. 

Despite the cool weather on Friday, fire danger will spike in the
very high category for most of the CWA with wind gusts expected 
to peak above 25 knots. Some guidance (via momentum transfer) 
produces gusts of 30-37 knots as a reinforcing shot of colder air
works into the area. Minimum relative humidity will slip under 
30% in the eastern half of CWA. We really could've used additional
snowfall with this morning's system. Perusing drought indices 
this morning was disheartening. CONUS scaled SPEI, SPI and EDDI 
indices reveal a bullseye over eastern Nebraska. 

Expect lows to slip to near zero on Friday night. Record lows
aren't likely, but will be 25-30 degrees cooler than normal under
the waxing moon. The long term forecast is warm, but Saturday
morning's chill deserves consideration. Wind chills of -10 to -20
are forecast for the northern bank of Nebraska counties prior to
sunrise. 

THE WEEKEND

The worsening drought conditions will impel temperatures to warm 
quickly this weekend and help keep fire danger and temps high all
week.

Saturday's forecast calls for sunny skies, return flow and
significant WAA, especially at 850hPa, where some locations will
improve by 20C in 24 hours. Fire danger will be very high north of
the Platte River with quickly climbing temps and speedy winds. 

Sunday brings a shortwave just north and west of here, but looks
to remain a bit too distant to bring much for clouds and CAA.
Highs will push above normal and we expect widespread 60s. There
will be occasional short-waves, wind shifts, and temperatures
bouncing around a bit, but overall it looks warm and dry. Temps
slip a handful of degrees under the increasing cloudiness 
forecast for Monday, but the current forecast calls for 70-75 
degree temps by Wednesday afternoon. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 509 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

VFR conditions through the period with winds the primary concern.
Southwest winds less than 12 knots at TAF issuance, but veering
with time, but not significant enough to include wind groups at
KLNK/KOMA. Winds do increase to 12 knots at KOFK by about 05z, and
will include wind change groups for every 30 degrees. Northwest
winds increase to 16 to 25 knots by 16z at all TAF sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald