133 
FXUS64 KMEG 091736
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1136 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

.UPDATE...


18Z Aviation Discussion Below


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022/ 

DISCUSSION...
A few pockets of light rain or mix is moving across west Tennessee
this morning. These showers will be ending over the next few
hours. We should dry out today and Thursday as temperatures will
quickly moderate. We should be in the 50s today and 60s on
Thursday and Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front
will usher in much colder temperatures for the weekend. Also it
will bring some winter precipitation with it as well. 

Guidance still points to some accumulating snowfall for a large 
portion of the Mid South. The range of possibilities are as from 
less than an inch to upwards of 3 to 4 inches possible across 
portions of the Mid South. Generally this setup doesn't yield a 
lot of snow as the cold air will be trying to catch up to the 
falling precipitation. Also the cold air may help squeeze the 
moisture out before it has the chance to really switch over to a 
good steady snow. However, currently in the forecast we have a 
large area of the region mainly eastern Arkansas and west 
Tennessee with 1 to 2 inches of accumulation for the Friday night
into Saturday morning time frame.

For what its worth, the entire forecast area has at least 
a 30 percent chance or better of seeing at least 1 inch of snow 
based on the latest probabilities. So, eastern AR, MO boot heel, 
W TN have the best chances of seeing the higher snow amounts, but 
north Mississippi has a chance to see some snow as well mainly 
early Saturday morning as the system pulls out. We will probably 
have to consider Winter Weather Advisories at some point over the 
next day or so for a large portion of the area. Right now, Winter 
Storm Watches and Warnings aren't completely out of the question,
but this scenario doesn't look like it will meet warning criteria
at least at this moment. The bigger certainty will be the cold 
temperatures expected behind the front. We will not get out of the
30s on Saturday, and depending on snow amounts and cloud cover 
some areas may struggle to get above freezing Saturday. Overnight 
lows will be in the teens and 20s Friday night and Saturday night.
The main takeaway is to prepare for some snow late Friday night 
into Saturday, and much colder temps for the weekend. Things will 
change but confidence is increasing on the Mid South seeing some 
accumulating snow this this weekend. 

Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure will shift SE and 
southerly winds and milder temps return. A quick moving system
will bring a chance of rain mainly Monday night. 

MJH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

MVFR cigs slowly lifting and all sites should for VFR here in the
next few hours. No weather concerns for this TAF set. Wind is
NNW 3-8kts and will veer NNE later tonight. 

SMW


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$