728 FXUS61 KAKQ 091228 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 728 AM EST Wed Mar 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues today as low pressure lifts north across the Carolinas and off the Outer Banks. Low pressure then lingers along the Southeast coast through Thursday. A strong cold front crosses the local area Saturday, with high pressure building into the region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EST Wednesday... Latest WX analysis indicates a broad area of sfc low pressure centered across the southern Appalachians, with high pressure well off to our NE. Widespread rain prevails with temperatures generally in the low to mid 40s. QPF amounts thus far have averaged from 0.40" to 0.60" across much of the area, with an additional 0.50" or so expected through the remainder of the morning hrs, with locally higher amounts across the N. PoPs 80%-100% continue this morning. Will likely see the steadier rain end across NC and shift into VA before sunrise. Highs today will be in the mid 40s to around 50F for most (coolest N/NW), but with a narrow zone of mid-upper 50s to lower 60s in NE NC where the rain is expected to generally end before redeveloping later this aftn. As the low pressure slides offshore late this aftn into this evening, high pressure centered well off to our NW (over the northern high Plains) will ridge all the way east into the local area. BUFKIT soundings show a shallow layer of low level moisture remaining so skies are still expected to remain mostly cloudy, but measurable rain should come to an end (lingering into early evening along the coast). Mostly cloudy tonight, some patchy drizzle may develop though w/ much of the guidance trending lower w/ dew pts confidence in this scenario is too low to include this in the forecast at this time. Lows range from the lower-mid 30s N to the lower 40s SE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EST Wednesday... Weak high pressure will move across the local area Wednesday evening, and this will be followed by another area of low pressure tracking through the SE CONUS and off the NC coast Thursday. A mostly cloudy sky for Thursday has been maintained and slight chc to chc PoPs (20-40%) brush the area Thursday, with 40-60% across the far SE (highest along the Albemarle Sound). Some partial sunshine is possible across the NW 1/2 of the area. Highs Thursday are mainly in the lower 50s. Mainly dry Thursday night as that low pushes well off the NC coast. Mostly cloudy S and partly cloudy N. Lows in the mid 30s N to the lower 40s SE. Dry Friday with improving conditions, though it may struggle to scatter out the low clouds especially closer to the coast in SE VA and NE NC. Will overall call it partly sunny with forecast highs ranging from the mid 50s along the coast, to the upper 50s to lower 60s inland. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM EST Wednesday... The medium range period begins with a very amplified upper pattern featuring a deep upper trough over northern portions of Hudson Bay Canada, with a strong shortwave moving through the base of this upper trough and digging to the SSE into the central CONUS Fri night, reaching well down into the Gulf coast region by Sat. At the sfc, the 00Z/09 models are in general agreement that low pressure develops over the western Gulf of Mexico, and deepens while quickly moving NE to the southern Appalachians Fri night into early Sat. Deep layered moisture moves back into the local area overnight, with likely to categorical PoPs back into the forecast after midnight. Lows Fri night mainly in the 40s, though temperatures may rise across much of the area prior to daybreak as southerly flow increases. Low pressure is forecast to rapidly move across the local area Sat morning, before intensifying along or off the mid Atlantic and NE coast Sat aftn. The latest 09/00z ECMWF/GFS depict crashing temperatures and support a change over to snow for any remaining precip Sat aftn/early evening. The latest GEFS still has a >50% probability of exceeding 1" of snow over portions of central and eastern VA (but this drops off sharply for exceeding 3"). This is also based on the assumption of a 10:1 SLR. The problem is warm ground at the onset and changing to snow during the day in mid- March often does not result in much in the way of accumulation. So based on the latest data, there is continued support for some falling snow, but confidence is very low on any accumulation occurring. The EPS is much lower w/ the 1" probs compared to the GEFS. Highs Sat will be in the 60s SE to around 50F NW, but as noted, with falling temperatures (into the 30s in many areas) through the aftn. After that, drying out but remaining windy Sat night (esp across the eastern shore) with colder weather expected late Saturday through Sunday. Saturday could feature steady or falling temperatures during the day depending on the timing of the front. Colder Saturday night with lows 20-25F central/W to the upper 20s toward the coast. Mostly sunny/dry Sunday- Monday as surface high pressure builds over the southern CONUS and shifts E to the local area by Monday. Highs Sunday mainly 45-50F. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s Sunday night, with highs Monday from the mid to upper 50s on the Eastern Shore to the lower 60s inland, with highs ranging through the 60s by Tuesday (after morning lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s). && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 700 AM EST Wednesday... Rain/showers persist all areas this morning, though the rain will tend to diminish to light rain or drizzle by late this morning or early aftn. Another batch of showers may pass across late this aftn. N to NE winds will average 5-10kt inland, and 10-20kt at the coast. Mainly IFR conditions today but some improvement to MVFR will be possible, especially at ECG. Kind of uncertain with respect to flight restrictions lifting later tonight/early Thu morning. For now will have conditions improving to MVFR CIGs, though if some of the low clouds scatter out, there could potentially be some patchy fog or LIFR-IFR CIGs developing Thu morning. OUTLOOK... MVFR-VFR conditions return Thurs into Fri as weak high pressure moves in from the north while low pressure lingers across the Carolinas (overall the better chance for continued flight restrictions will be in far SE VA and NE NC). A much stronger system will affect the region Fri night/Sat with another round of rain and gusty winds and flight restrictions. Could even see the pcpn end as a rain/wet snow mix Sat at RIC/SBY. Breezy NW winds but becoming VFR/dry Sat night into Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 415 AM EST Wednesday... Small Craft Advisories are in effect today for most of our coastal waters. High pressure is centered well northeast of the area this morning as a sfc low pressure deepens and tracks across the southeast U.S. towards the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. ENE winds have increased ahead of the sfc low. Through early afternoon, winds will be ENE 15-20 kt in the bay and 20-25 kt across ocean coastal water. The center of the sfc low pressure will track off the VA coast this afternoon. Winds will become NNW 15-20 kt later this evening and tonight. There will be a lull in higher wind speeds this evening after the low moves off the coast. Waves in the bay will be 2-4 ft and seas 4-6 ft into tonight. A weaker area of low pressure tracks well to our SE on Thursday, allowing winds to become NE at 12-15kt on the bay/15-20kt on the ocean (highest S). Seas likely remain 4-5ft N/5-6ft S from Wed through Thu. Waves are forecast to be in the 2-4 ft range from Wed- Thu. Sub-SCA conditions return on Friday. Confidence is increasing that a stronger storm system will impact the area this weekend. A deep sfc low is forecasted to track inland from the southeast US, through the Mid-Atlantic, and into the northeast US. Southwest winds are expected to increase early Saturday as the sfc tracks towards the area. Gale condition are likely as the winds become NW after the center of low pressure tracks through the region. Winds may gusts as high as 40-45 kt late Saturday/Saturday night for portions of the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean coastal waters. Waves in the bay may build up to 4-6 ft and seas 6-10 ft during this time. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB AVIATION...LKB/MPR MARINE...CP/ERI