216 FXUS64 KLUB 081113 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 513 AM CST Tue Mar 8 2022 .AVIATION... VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 AM CST Tue Mar 8 2022/ SHORT TERM... An upper level short wave trough over western Colorado and New Mexico early this morning will move eastward to a position over the central and southern High Plains at mid-afternoon and then well east of the forecast area at mid-evening. This feature will bring its own mid level moisture with it, resulting in a fairly widespread altocumulus field across the Panhandle, extending as far south as the northern tier of the forecast area. Before then, the eastward progression of the trough will shift the extensive thin cirrus shield that has been over the forecast area early this morning to the east of the region with increased insolation this afternoon compared to that of yesterday. At the surface, the southwestern extension of a ridge will keep an east-northeast low level flow across the forecast through much of the morning, but pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies will turn winds around to south-southwest progressively from west to east through the day. Net progged thickness from yesterday afternoon to today is neutral, but the exchange of northeasterly low level flow for southwest (albeit remaining light) in addition to the increased insolation should be worth about 5 degrees, give or take, over yesterday's highs - a bit more west where winds turn fastest and a bit less than 5 to the east where surface ridging will linger longer. The overnight period will remain quiet with flow aloft backing from northwest to west- southwest. Surface flow will remain light, although will eventually end from the south as the forecast area will be between ridging to the east and a developing lee trough to the west under the zonal mid to upper level flow. LONG TERM... Little change has been necessitated for the long term forecast package as the previous assessments remain on track. Mean troughing will continue to amplify across the CONUS on Wednesday, with a weak, smaller-scale shortwave trough pivoting over the TX PH region. Lee cyclogenesis of a ~998-1000 mb surface low will occur in vicinity of the TX/OK PH/Raton Mesa area, and with surface troughing sharpening in response to the amplifying synoptic-scale flow, breezy to low-end windy conditions are forecast to develop area-wide during the afternoon hours with southerly winds at around 20-30 mph. The warmth will not last long with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday afternoon, as a strong cold front will move through the region on Thursday morning. Thinking continues to trend towards a faster/colder solution as a shortwave trough splits off over the western interior and digs southward towards the Four Corners region. High temperatures on Thursday are currently forecast to peak in the upper 30s to middle 50s across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle, and the southern South and Rolling Plains, respectively, and were adjusted closer in line to the NBM 25th percentile. The potential for wintry precipitation will increase late Thursday and last through Friday morning as the southern-stream shortwave trough pivots over the Four Corners region and ejects eastward, with moist, isentropic ascent rapidly increase after sunset Thursday. The southern-stream shortwave trough will phase with its northern counterpart, forming a progressive, longwave trough that will quickly exit the region by Friday night. The modified cA airmass will be scoured out by Saturday as low-amplitude ridging builds in from the west, with high temperatures on Saturday about 20-25 deg F warmer than on Friday (i.e. lower 60s area-wide). The warming trend will continue through the weekend into early next week as the mean flow aloft attenuates into a quasi-zonal state. Towards the end of the forecast period (Monday/D7), medium-range guidance is beginning to hint at the possibility of another cold front barreling through the region associated with a fast-moving shortwave trough moving across the country. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 07/09/07