578 FXUS62 KJAX 061407 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 907 AM EST Sun Mar 6 2022 .UPDATE... Sfc ridge axis is north of the area and expected to drift southward through tonight, with a mid level ridge from srn FL north-northeast and off the coast of the CONUS. The JAX 12Z sounding shows calm wind at the sfc and south-southeast winds at 10-25 kt just above radiation inversion through at least 800 mb. These winds aloft expected to mix down by the time temps reach the lower 70s which should be in the next hour or so for all areas. Strong heating and southerly flow should enable max temps to reach near record highs with mid/upper 80s inland and around upper 70s at the coast. The current record highs at Gainesville and Alma may be reached, which are from way back in 1977 and 1961, respectively. Otherwise, generally mostly sunny skies with occasional scattered cumulus developing as some low level moisture works up from the southeast around the sfc ridge. Sfc winds southeast near 8-15 mph, and may be gusting to 20-25 mph along the coastal zones. The current forecast was updated to remove patchy fog and was on track with minor tweaks to sky cover for the cumulus and the daytime highs. .MARINE... Current forecast on track, with a marginal SCA for the offshore FL waters starting later today. Seas just touch 7 ft over the offshore waters by late today, but also noting the NWPS looks a little low by about 0.5 to 1 foot in the latest forecasts so just a minor adjustment for seas and winds. Continuing the SCA for the offshore FL waters, and SCEC for the offshore GA waters. .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites from today through Tuesday: Sunday Monday Tuesday ----------------------------------- Jacksonville 88 (1961) 87 (1961) 88 (1945) Gainesville 87 (1977) 87 (1977) 88 (1921) Alma, GA 86 (1961) 86 (1956) 86 (1974) St. Simons Island 85 (2003) 83 (1945) 85 (1961) Craig Airport 88 (2003) 83 (2004) 86 (1998) && .PREV DISCUSSION [522 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Patchy to areas of shallow ground fog will continue to impact areas mainly between Highway 301 and the Atlantic coast through daybreak, with intermittent visibility < 1 mile at times. After morning fog lifts, dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue under an upper level ridge across south FL and low level SE flow around the surface ridge centered offshore of the SE Atlantic Coast. A dominant east coast sea breeze will press inland in the afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 mph at times trailing it's passage under a diurnally enhanced cumulus field. Highs will warm into the mid/upper 80s well inland which could challenge records at Alma and Gainesville today. Closer to the coast, cooler onshore flow will temper highs in the low/mid 80s to mid/upper 70s along the coast. Tonight, winds transition to more southerly continue above normal warmth with lows in the 60s for most locations with some patchy shallow ground fog possible inland after midnight. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]... Monday, ridging aloft centered over the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba will extend NE towards Bermuda while a longwave mid/upper level trough over the western U.S. will push east over the midwest with a leading shortwave impulse moving east from the central plains into the midwest states. This pattern will support a warm airmass over the region with increasing moisture as the flow between the surface and low levels veers with height under mid level SW flow. Upstream, the leading shortwave over the midwest will support a developing surface low moving ENE along the OH river valley with a cold front that will trail SW from the low into the lower MS valley. Surface high pressure pressure ridge axis extending over NE FL will weaken as the high pressure center slides east of Bermuda into the Atlantic with leftover dry air aloft keeping most of the area dry with exception of north central FL where scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may form as Atlantic and Gulf coast seabreezes collide over central Fl and steer and showers and any storms northward into southern portion of the area south of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine. Winds will be breezy with southerly winds turning southeast along the Atlantic coast behind the east coast seabreeze and river breeze and from the SW behind the gulf coast seabreeze. Highs on Monday will be well above normal to near record values in the mid/upper 80s with upper 70s to around 80 at the beaches. Tuesday the cold front will move east along the Gulf coast and stall by afternoon as the shortwave trough aloft moves off the NE U.S. coast along with the parent surface low that will deepen near the New England coast. Weak shortwave impulses embedded in the SW flow aloft over the Gulf coast region will redevelop weak surface lows along the frontal boundary, with the bulk of the rainfall falling west of the area with scattered shower coverage over most of the area with numerous showers over portions of SE GA west and north of Waycross. Partly cloudy skies will lead to sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. High will once again rise to near record levels in the mid/upper 80s away from the beaches on Tuesday. Lows on Tuesday morning will in the low 60s. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Wednesday, the frontal boundary will drift to NW portions of the area as a wave of showers develops along the boundary during the day with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy. Enough surface heating is expected to allow for isolated thunderstorms across the area with locally heavy rainfall possible over the suwanee valley and interior SE GA during the afternoon and evening hours that will persist overnight into early Thursday as a surface low slides the boundary southward into SE GA near the Altamaha river basin. Increasing dynamics on Thursday will promote scattered storms embedded within the waves of showers that will sink from SE GA early in the day into NE FL during the afternoon hours. The deeper moisture levels up to 1.75 inches of PWATs flowing over the area from the Gulf of Mexico will support heavy rainfall rates that may promote locally heavy rains over much of the area. Friday, the frontal boundary will remain over the area with much of the stronger dynamics exiting to the east as the heavier waves of showers and storms exit east into the Atlantic. This will mean less coverage of showers until late Friday night into early Saturday when a strong shortwave trough digs into the deep south and promotes another wave of low pressure that will lift the boundary north of the area before the front progresses through the area Saturday afternoon with a final round of showers and isolated T'storms with cooler and drier air filtering in on the heels of the front during the late afternoon hours with breezy NW winds as high pressure builds in from the WNW. Dry conditions will prevail Sunday with northerly winds becoming northeasterly in the afternoon as the high builds quickly just north of the region over north GA and the Carolinas Temperatures will begin well above normal midweek with highs in the mid/upper 80s and lows in the low/mid 60s Wednesday. Temperatures will then trend to near normal values Thursday and Friday and then below normal Saturday afternoon into Sunday. .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Monday] Intermittent shallow ground fog impacted VQQ and CRG early this morning and indicated TEMPO IFR for VQQ through 12z as CRG radiational cooling will be disrupted by low level cumulus with bases 3-4 kft streaming northward. After daybreak, prevailing SE winds will persist through the day, with speeds increasing to 10-12 kts as the east coast sea breeze presses inland through the afternoon. Few to scattered cumulus with bases 4-6 kft will develop once again in the afternoon. Winds decouple this evening after sunset with some passing low level clouds through the night with bases 3-4 kft and potential shallow ground fog toward sunrise Monday morning for inland terminals as indicated by the EMC HREFv3 and for now trended VQQ toward MVFR after 07z. .MARINE... High pressure will build east of the local waters through Monday with increasing SSE winds and building combined seas for the local FL waters. By this afternoon, combined seas near 7 ft are likely near the Gulf Stream for our outer FL waters, and issued a Small Craft Advisory through Monday night. A front will approach from the west Tuesday then begin to stall across the region into Wednesday. The front will linger over the region through Thursday with waves of showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting the local waters. A stronger cold front is expected to move across the local waters late Friday or early Saturday. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues for all local beaches through Monday. Increasing SE winds will bring a stronger longshore current today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 59 86 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 60 SSI 77 62 77 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 50 JAX 84 62 86 62 85 / 0 0 10 10 40 SGJ 81 61 82 62 82 / 0 0 20 20 40 GNV 87 58 87 62 85 / 0 0 10 10 30 OCF 88 59 88 62 86 / 0 0 20 20 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. &&