879 FXUS61 KCLE 041741 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1241 PM EST Fri Mar 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure drifts east of the region today, with a dry warm front passing later this afternoon. A warm up commences ahead of a strong low pressure system and strong southerly flow. Cold front with this system passes on Sunday. A secondary low pressure system passes to the south Sunday night into Monday. Strong high pressure into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the afternoon update, there were no significant changes to the forecast. Slowed the spreading of clouds across the area this afternoon, but that shouldn't have much impact to temperatures at that point. Previous Discussion... Rather quiet for an early March day as high pressure drifts eastward under fair conditions for the bulk of the near term period. Despite the high pressure, cirrus on the increase from both a northwest to southeast running jet stream aloft, and then from a warm front later today. Mid and lower levels of the atmosphere are very dry, so no precipitation with this feature. However, given the very large T/Td spread in the 800-900mb layer, did lower dewpoints manually from blended guidance during mixing hours this afternoon. Warming trend advertised for a few days now will commence today with modest increases in the max temperature forecast, but into Saturday with a more robust southerly flow, widespread 60s expected with the far northeastern zones lagging behind in the 50s. Could be getting gusty out in the western zones later in the afternoon Saturday into Saturday evening. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure remains off to the west Saturday night with clouds moving into the region. Clouds move into place through Sunday morning as low-level RH values increase ahead of the front. Showers will begin to move in ahead of the cold front late Saturday night early Sunday morning from west to east. The cold front will enter the region late Sunday morning and will drift across the CWA from west to east. Showers associated with this system will dwindle from west to east by Sunday afternoon. Low level RH values quickly dry out Sunday afternoon behind the front which may allow for some sunshine for a period of time. Winds will be gusty this weekend as a low- level jet moves over the region Saturday night. Wind gusts on Sunday across the CWA Sunday afternoon look to range between 30 and 40 knots. From the looks of it we may need a Wind Advisory for some parts of the CWA Sunday afternoon, but for now gusty conditions are mentioned in the HWO. The next system moves in late Sunday evening from the southwest and becomes widespread early Monday morning. This system looks to bring more QPF than what we will see on Sunday. QPF amounts for Monday look to generally range between 1 and 1.5 inches across the region. Due to higher QPF amounts and 99th percentile PWAT values, this event may be cause for flooding on Monday. This system looks to begin as rain across the CWA, but lakeshore counties could see a rain-snow mix Monday morning will cooler air in place. For now grids have been kept as either rain or snow, but some GEFS member solutions are showing the possibility of mixed precip. Temperatures on Saturday night through Sunday evening remain mild and above average which will help keep any precipitation that falls through late Sunday as rain. Temperatures will drop closer to average after the passing of the cold front Sunday evening and will remain seasonal through Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The bulk of the precipitation moves out of the area by Monday night, but kept POPs through early Tuesday morning. Northwesterly flow will occur behind the passing of the low on Tuesday morning with some lingering moisture in place. Chance POPS have been placed across the snowbelt Tuesday morning to account for any lingering lake effect precipitation that may occur. Broad high pressure moves in by Tuesday morning and will allow for us to remain dry as it stays in control until Wednesday evening. Some long range models are showing another system moving from the southwest into the region by early Thursday morning. POPs have been increased across the southern CWA to account for rain chances on Thursday, but at this point they remain minimal due to forecast uncertainty this far in advance. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Pleasant aviation conditions are expected to continue for much of this TAF period as high pressure keeps VFR ceilings and visibilities around. High clouds will begin to push east this evening. Light and variable winds today and tonight will begin to increase to 5-10 knots from the east-southeast by Saturday morning. Near the end of the period, winds will shift to become southwest across the western terminals as a LLJ of near 30 knots approaches the area, increasing sustained winds to 12-15 knots, gusting as high as 20 knots. These gusty winds will stick around after the period, slowly spreading east by Sunday. For this update, only included gusts in KFDY & KMFD. Outlook...Areas of non-VFR in rain Saturday Night through Monday, and then in snow showers late Monday night. Low level and surface flows increase with an approaching low pressure system Saturday and Sunday ahead of a strong cold front. LLWS may be needed in the TAF Saturday night/Sunday. && .MARINE... Calm winds shift and become out of the east at 5 to 10 knots overnight Friday into Saturday. Winds will pick up early Sunday morning associated with a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region. Winds become generally from the out of the south ranging between 25 and 30 knots over the lake. Winds weaken by Monday morning and come out of the west at 10 to 15 knots behind the passing cold front. At this point, no headlines are in place, but a brief period of gale criteria may occur on Sunday. Due to strong southerly flow and mild temperatures through the weekend ice will move around and decay through early next week. Winds remain generally northerly at 10 to 15 knots through Tuesday afternoon before shifting to a westerly direction. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...Campbell/26 SHORT TERM...Iverson LONG TERM...Iverson AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...Iverson