459 FXUS64 KAMA 022354 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 554 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 .AVIATION...00Z TAF Cycle... VFR conditions are expected with increasing high clouds tomorrow. Light southeast winds will gradually become south southwest by tomorrow around 15z. Some gusts around 20 to 25 knots will be possible at all sites tomorrow afternoon. Ward && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 159 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022/ SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday Night... Warm weather is expected with some breezy winds in the northwest, leading to critical fire weather. Just a few mid level clouds are floating in the southern TX Panhandle today. Otherwise, abundant sunshine and downsloping from lee side troughing are helping us to warm up into the 70s today. With a weak pressure gradient, winds have also been light and variable today, making it a great day to get outside. As the surface low dances around southeastern CO, light winds will persist overnight. However, the pressure gradient looks to tighten up a bit Thursday, bringing 10-15 mph winds for most of the CWA. The lee side trough will bring downsloping and increased warming, leading to some 80s in the eastern Panhandles. High clouds will filter into the area as moisture at the 300mb level pushes in with the upper level jet. Forecast sounding show mixing through 700mb tomorrow, which may bring enough winds in the northwest to bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The extent of the area of fire concern will be determined by how strong the winds will be. Models have been trending stronger winds more to our north. The pressure gradient will ease slightly overnight, but WAA and sky cover preventing radiational cooling will keep overnight temps in the 40s for most areas. Beat FIRE WEATHER...Thursday... Critical fire weather conditions are expected in Cimarron County Thursday so have issued a Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM. High confidence that RH will drop to single digits, around 5 to 7 percent. Winds for tomorrow are more in question as models continue to trend the higher winds further north out of our area. Confidence is high enough that southwest winds in Cimarron will remain in the 15-20 mph range, but other areas like Dallam and Texas Counties are more unclear, so for now have left them out of the warning. With winds so low, this RFW is all RH driven. All of the RFTI of 4 is RH contribution. RH recovery overnight into Friday morning is expected to be around 40-50 percent. Winds should ease to 10-15 mph overnight as well. ERC values for Thursday are in the 90th to 97th percentile range, so grasses are a definite tinder box. Believe with the low winds, any fires should remain in the IA category. Beat LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday night... Current mid to upper level troughing over the FA will break down going into Saturday as an approaching H5 trough traverses the Desert Southwest. Up stream will be a second area of low pressure over northern CA within the same longwave trough. The right exit region of an H5 jet maxima (topping out around 80-90 kts over southwest NM) associated with the first H5 low will end up over the combined Panhandles late Friday. The GFS has this jet maxima topping out at 90-105 kts over the northwest FA into southwest KS Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, as the first H5 low positions over central NE, the FA is progged to then be under the left entrance region of the H5 jet maxima. Upstream the second low will be traversing southern NV Saturday afternoon. The longwave H5 trough housing both of these low pressure centers will introduce some colder air to the area with an initial surface cold front entering the FA late Saturday into Sunday morning. A leeside low will develop in eastern to northeastern Colorado Friday afternoon with a surface trough extending south into eastern NM and western combined Panhandles. Forty degree dewpoints will be around briefly Friday morning but will quickly be pushed east by the development of the surface trough. The pressure gradient from this leeside low development will also create surface winds in the 20 to 25 mph range. H85 winds will be in the 30 to 35 kt range. With some cloud cover Friday these higher winds will not be able to mix to the surface as easily. A LLTR will set up over the western FA into parts of NM and eastern CO into the western FA aligning with the surface trough. H85 temperatures are progged to be near 21 degrees (Celsius) and will contribute to some decent warming, with afternoon highs reaching well into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight Friday into Saturday morning an H7 jet maxima of around 50 to 60kts is progged to traverse the combined Panhandles as the leeside low strengthens and moves into northwestern KS. The surface pressure gradient will stay strong overnight with winds still breezy and keeping some warm air mixed at the surface. Per Bufkit soundings a thin layer of moisture may develop in the H6 to H5 layer above an 'onion' shaped sounding in the lower levels. If this ends up creating some virga showers some of the higher winds aloft may mix to the surface causing some wind gusts upwards of 50 kts in the overnight period. Will have to reassess this going into Friday. Saturday, as the leeside low tracks east-northeast, winds turn to the north on the western periphery and cold air starts to move south along the plains. This approaching CAA will quash the LLTR slightly on Saturday and H85 are only progged to make it to 15 degrees (Celsius) over the FA as opposed to the 21 degrees over most of the western FA on Friday. Despite clear skies on Saturday afternoon max temperatures are only progged to be in the upper 60s in the west and 70s in the east. Higher winds aloft from the H7 to H5 jet maxima will be bettered positioned over the combined Panhandles introducing higher wind potential Saturday. Have used the 90th percentile for winds for now but there is still room for these winds to come up over the next couple of days. Saturday evening a cold front will move into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Winds will manage to become northerly with temperatures becoming cooler Sunday into Monday. Sunday highs will be in the upper 40s to the northern FA and lower 60s to the southern TX Panhandle. The second area of low pressure previously mentioned in the synoptic overview will be approaching the Four Corners Region Sunday night into Monday and may bring some light precipitation to the north and eastern FA with only 20 PoPs at this time. As the low leaves the Four Corners Region it weakens and opens up into northern NM. At this time it is looking like the FA will be mostly dry slotted once again. Hoffeditz Fire Weather...Friday and Saturday... With the development of a leeside low on Friday, some lower dewpoints get introduced to the combined Panhandles starting in the west. With a strong LLTR over this area as well, temperatures will climb to near 80 for most of the area, and as this happens RH values will plunge into the lower teens especially in the northwest combined Panhandles. The max RFTI at any given hour will be around 3 to isolated 4, primarily in Cimarron County and far western TX Panhandle. Overall the west to northwest two thirds are looking to be mostly RH driven Elevated with possibly Critical Fire Weather in the western stack of counties. Winds will stay fairly breezy overnight into Saturday morning with possible nocturnal wind gusts as well. The LLTR will not be as strong on Saturday. However, a stacked jet and approaching cold front will aid in higher winds across the combined Panhandles. Twenty foot winds are currently in the 20 to 30 mph range in the forecast for Saturday afternoon. There may still be some room for these wind speeds to come up as this is still Day 4. RH values look to be lower across the board in the single digits adding to the fire potential as well. With more widespread and higher RFTI values of 5 to 6, wide spread critical fire weather conditions are looking to be likely present Saturday afternoon for the entire FA. Hoffeditz && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley... Oldham. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for the following zones: Cimarron. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM CST Thursday for the following zones: Cimarron. && $$ 7/99