768 FXUS64 KSHV 012001 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 201 PM CST Tue Mar 1 2022 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Dry and stable conditions to persist through the short-term period as the region remains under the influence of weak upper- level ridging aloft and firmly established high pressure at the surface. High clouds streaming east across the region to persist through much of the short-term period with the best coverage south of interstate 20. With surface high pressure anchored across the region, light and variable winds to prevail overnight, becoming southwest at 5 mph again on Wednesday. Without much airmass movement over the next 36 hours, diurnal temperatures swings will remain fairly persistent with low temperatures both tonight and tomorrow night around 40 degrees with highs on Wednesday in the lower to middle 70s. /05/ .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday Night/ Starting 12z Thursday...Dry and warm conditions are expected to continue across the region at the start of the long-term period as high pressure will remain in place. Mostly clear skies and southerly flow on Thursday will help temperatures rise to around 10 degrees above seasonable normals with afternoon highs ranging from the lower to mid 70s across the region. Above normal temperatures will then prevail across the region through Sunday night with afternoon highs increasing a few degrees each day before our warmest day of the long- term period on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to the mid 80s for some locations. Lows will follow in the same pattern through Sunday night, starting off in the mid to upper 40s on Thursday night, gradually warming each night as Saturday night lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. Meanwhile, long range models are in pretty good agreement that a trough will be digging southward just off the California Coast early Friday morning and will continue to do so through the day Friday. As a result of this digging trough, much of the southwest CONUS will return to southwesterly flow aloft with increasing southerly flow across our region. This will result in an increase in cloud cover across much of our area early Friday morning and through the day. Eventually, the trough will eject out of the Rockies and into the Central and Northern Plains on Saturday. This will push a cold front southward through the Southern Plains and towards our region. With the strengthening low level southerly flow and WAA ahead of this system, we should see rain chances return to the area as early as Saturday as a few weak disturbances moving along the flow impact us. From here, precipitation chances remain in the forecast through the remainder of the long-term forecast period and potentially beyond as another closed trough will follow on the heels of the aforementioned one, helping to drive the cool front into our region on Sunday. This frontal boundary could be slow to move through the region, with models indicating an arrival to some cooler and more seasonable weather by Monday for portions of the area before filtering more into the area on Tuesday. In addition, there could be a chance for severe weather late Sunday into early Monday ahead of the front, however, confidence remains on the low side. /33/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1125 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2022/ AVIATION... For the 01/18z TAFs, VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals. High clouds to gradually clear overnight into Wednesday. Light southwesterly winds around 5 knots to become near calm overnight before increasing to 5 knots again on Wednesday. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 41 73 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 40 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 35 75 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 40 73 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 37 74 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 42 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 39 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 42 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 05/33