523 FXUS62 KTAE 011729 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1229 PM EST Tue Mar 1 2022 .AVIATION... [Through 18z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION [950 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Through sunrise this morning, look for patchy fog in an area centered around Marianna FL and Bainbridge GA. This area is uniquely situated between inhibiting clouds to the south and inhibiting dry air advection to the northwest. Fog will be shallow and will burn off within 1-2 hours after sunrise. The air mass will undergo drying today. Surface high pressure is located along the Texas coast early this morning, and it will move to southern Louisiana and southern MS by late tonight. Clockwise flow around this feature will bring gentle northerly breezes. Surface dewpoints north of a Dothan-Albany-Fitzgerald line are currently dropping into the 30s as drier air trickles in from the north. This drier air will slowly and gradually make inroads across the rest of the forecast area today and tonight. Large- scale subsidence will also wipe out the clouds that are observed over the coastal Big Bend region. Tonight, weak dry air advection will prevent fog. However, it will be a good night for radiational cooling. Lows will commonly drop to the lower 40s, but a few inland cold pockets will reach the frosty 30s. .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]... High pressure will begin to dominate over the region with warming afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, while overnight lows will remain will remain in the upper 40s for a short while longer. Upper level ridging looks to flatten a little on Thursday, but will not affect the overall pattern heading into the long term. There is virtually no chance for rain during the short term. .LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... Deep level subtropical ridging will once again build over the region for the long term. The gradual warming of temperatures will continue through the weekend. As the following weekend approaches, there will be an upper level low developing over the Four Corners region that would move east across the country that may bring us the chance for showers and thunderstorms by the end of the long term period. This will have to be monitored throughout the next few days for any severe potential. No rain is expected until the end of the term when PoPs increase to 30% on Tuesday for our northwest counties. The highs for the long term are expected to start from the low 80s and warm to the mid-upper 80s by the end of the weekend. Overnight lows will start in the upper 40s then gradually warm to the 50s and then low 60s by the end of the term. .MARINE... Seas will decrease to 1-3 feet today. Seas will continue to subside through the week and winds will remain steady at less than 15 kts as high pressure establishes control. .FIRE WEATHER... Warming and drying is expected today, compared with Monday. Gentle northerly breezes will bring in drier air from the north, while clearing skies and abundant afternoon sunshine will boost high temperatures into the 70-75 degree range. Further warming and drying is expected on Wednesday and Thursday as Min RH drops to 25 percent or less from I-10 northward both days. .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall is generally not expected over the next week, thus there are no flooding concerns at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 40 77 47 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 47 73 50 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 42 75 44 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 42 77 45 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 43 78 46 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 40 79 48 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 47 71 50 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Haner SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM...Montgomery AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Montgomery