114 
FXUS64 KLUB 011104
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
504 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2022

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2022/ 

SHORT TERM...
An upper level ridge covering the western CONUS will continue to 
move east today with a weak closed low underneath it traveling 
across southern Arizona today. Strong subtropical jet winds aloft 
today will decrease as this ridge moves east and the closed low 
further weakens. The thick Pacific moisture plume that has been 
overhead for the past 24 hours will thin out from north to south 
today. However, mostly cloudy skies can still be expected for most 
of the day. This may keep temperatures from again reaching their 
full potential today. Nonetheless, temperatures are still expected 
to be 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages.

LONG TERM...
Broad upper level ridging will continue to spread eastward on 
Wednesday with the ridge axis progged to be roughly overhead by 
Thursday morning. The streak of warm afternoon temperatures is set
to persist through the end of the week as modest south-southwesterly
low level flow continues along with a gradual climb in layer 
thickness values. Upper level flow will become southwesterly by 
Thursday evening as longwave upper troughing expands over the 
western CONUS. A series of shortwaves will rotate around the base 
of this trough Friday through the weekend, with high level 
cloudiness set to increase late Thursday into Friday as Pacific 
moisture streams overhead within the upper southwesterlies. 
Strengthening surface southerlies will pull quite a bit of 
moisture into our area Thursday night with dewpoints progged in 
the upper 40s to low 50s by Friday morning. Friday will still be 
warm even with the increased cloudiness with precip chances
looking very slim Fri-Sat despite the gradual approach of an upper
shortwave as the atmosphere will remain firmly capped. 

This shortwave will pass just to our north on Saturday, with 
guidance depicting a sharp dryline quickly pushing east and out of 
our area during the morning taking all appreciable moisture with it. 
With much drier conditions and notably stronger westerly winds as a 
surface cyclone deepens over the central plains, the potential for 
widespread critical fire weather conditions appears to be increasing
for Saturday afternoon and possibly into Sunday as dry westerly 
winds persist. A relatively modest cold front will push through 
the region from the north late Sunday into early Monday, bringing 
a return to cooler temperatures for early next week. The signal 
for precip in the Sun-Mon timeframe continues to fade with the 
best moisture well to our east. Will maintain a slight chance 
mention for rain showers across the eastern zones for now given a 
lingering signal in the ensembles, but lack of deep moisture will 
keep any precip very light. /DWK

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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