083 FXUS61 KBOX 271538 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1038 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather persists today and it will become windy, but milder too ahead of a strong cold front. This front may bring a few brief snow showers this evening, but the main story will be unseasonably cold and blustery weather tonight into Monday. A couple of weak Alberta Clippers will bring light precipitation to Southern New England, one on Tuesday and the other around early Thursday. Though a brief warmup is expected Wednesday, temperatures overall will trend below normal for the workweek before moderating by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1035 AM Update... No major changes to the forecast. Did tweak precipitation chances slightly based on the high resolution 12Z guidance which had started to arrive. Overall theme of gusty winds and the possibility of some snow showers late today continues. Previous Discussion... 250 AM Update... * Plenty of sunshine & milder this afternoon but becoming windy A strong cold front will be dropping southward from eastern Canada and into northern New England later today. The result will be a milder southwest flow of air ahead of the approaching front today. While 850T will only moderate to between -8C & -10C this afternoon, a modest westerly low level jet will result in excellent mixing and a super adiabatic atmosphere. This coupled with plenty of sunshine will result in high temperatures mainly in the lower 40s with upper 30s in the higher terrain. It will feel a bit chillier than the temperatures though; as Bufkit soundings support west to southwest wind gusts of 25-35 mph with a a few gusts up to 40 mph this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Highlights... * A few brief snow showers possible this evening & perhaps even a localized snow squall with the best chance north of I-90 * Blustery & turning very cold tonight into Monday with wind chills dropping to between 5 below and 5 above zero Details... Tonight... A strong cold front will cross the region this evening. There should be enough moisture/convergence along the front for a few brief snow showers and perhaps even a localized snow squall. The greater risk for this activity will be in northern New England, where there is deeper moisture and very steep 1000-700 mb lapse rates. Given the later arrival after peak heating in our region along with better dynamics/moisture to our north; we do not expect a repeat of what happened last weekend. That being said, we may see a few brief snow showers and even a localized snow squall or two. The main time frame of concern will be roughly between 5 and 11 pm this evening; with the greatest risk north of I-90 and especially north of route 2. Otherwise, the main story tonight will be the much colder air surging into southern New England behind the cold front. Northwest wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph should accompany the cold frontal passage this evening. It will remain breezy overnight, but winds will not be as strong as they will be during the evening. 850T drop to between -16C to -18C by daybreak. Therefore, expect low temps to bottom out in the high single digits across parts of the interior high terrain...to mainly the lower to middle teens elsewhere. Wind Chills will drop to between 5 below zero and 5 above zero by daybreak. Monday... Plenty of sunshine is on tap for Monday, but it will be unseasonably cold and blustery as large high pressure slowly builds in from the west. High temperatures will only recover into the middle to upper 20s with a gusty northwest wind of 20 to 25 mph. Wind chills between 5 below zero & 5 above zero early in the morning will only recover into the teens during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights... * Overall quiet week of weather to begin the first week of March. * Temperatures near climatological normal with chance for scattered showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday and perhaps better chances on Thursday. * More significant pattern change heading into this weekend with a potential storm system approaching from the Great Lakes. Details... Overall, the weather pattern couldn't be quieter for the first week of March. After a pretty active February with a few big winter storms and roller coaster temperatures, the start of meteorological spring will feature rather benign weather and near normal temperatures. While much of CONUS will be under a building H5 ridge, New England will be at the periphery of a H5 trough centered over eastern Canada. This means that periodic pieces of shortwave energy will ride the jet stream and give us shots of scattered rain/snow showers along with shots of colder air to keep temperatures right about normal. For reference, average highs this time of the year for southern New England are in the low to mid 40s. Overall, we have two clipper systems for the upcoming work week with plenty of fair weather in between, the first one arriving sometime Tuesday and the second one arriving sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. In particular, the second system could have the potential to produce light to moderate accumulating snowfall if the secondary low could intensify quick enough. Otherwise, it would be nothing more than a minor quick-hitting event. Then going into the weekend, things get more interesting as the departing system on Thursday gives us a shot of Arctic air with H5 heights perhaps dropping to sub-500 mb across New England. Then we get a reminder that spring is coming with a Colorado Low ejecting into the Great Plains, perhaps blizzard conditions on the northwest side of the system and severe weather southeast of the track. Depending on the timing and track of the system, we could either get an overruning snow event or a rain storm perhaps in the latter half of next weekend. But this is fantasy land in the model world so pretty much stuck to the NBM for this forecast period. Enjoy the relative quiet in the weather pattern and happy meteorological spring! && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...High Confidence. VFR with southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots developing by mid afternoon. A few gusts up to 35 knots possible. Tonight...High Confidence. Mainly VFR. A few brief snow showers and perhaps even a localized snow squall possible between 22z and 04z. Areal coverage of any activity will probably be limited with the greatest risk across northern MA; especially north of route 2. NW wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots with the strongest of those wind gusts during the first half of the night. Monday...High Confidence. VFR with NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and tonight...High Confidence. Gusty southwest winds of 30 to 35 knots will develop by afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. A strong cold front will cross the waters this evening resulting in NW wind gusts around 35 knots for much of tonight. Gale Warnings are posted for most waters, except Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay; where strong SCA headlines are posted. In addition, widespread freezing spray is expected late tonight into Monday morning. We hoisted a Freezing Spray Advisory for our northern waters; where we are expecting areas of moderate freezing spray. Monday...High Confidence. High pressure slowly building in from the west will allow winds to slacken a bit. However, given the continued cold advection and good mixing over the ocean; small craft wind gusts/seas will persist for much of the day across the open waters. Freezing Spray will also continue to be an issue for Monday morning. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for ANZ230-236. Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ250-251. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ250-251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/Chai NEAR TERM...Belk/Frank/Chai SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...Chai AVIATION...Belk/Frank/Chai MARINE...Belk/Frank/Chai