094 FXUS64 KMOB 221834 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1234 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Currently, an upper ridge has built north along the East Coast, but has shifted east with the ridge axis shifting just east of the coast. Reason is a series of upper level shortwave troughs moving through a mean upper trough over the western Conus. Today through tonight, an upper trough moves northeast over the Southeast/Tennessee River valleys, with a slowing cold front moving south over the Southeast tonight into Wednesday in its wake. The front stalls along Highway 84 Wednesday, with a weakening surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast helping to limit its southward movement. For the rest of today, partly sunny skies will help to temper afternoon heating, counter-balancing upper level subsidence from the shifting ridge. Still, am expecting temperatures to top out in the upper 70s to around 80. Isolated rainshowers, maybe a rumble or two, will be possible west of the Alabama River, with good mixing and a moist airmass in place. Tonight, with the front sagging south across the Southeast, the surface ridge will be disrupted enough for winds to lighten, but still remain southerly. With the onshore flow lightening, when combined with water temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s in nearshore and protected waters, dense fog development is likely tonight. The biggest question will be how far north it be able to spread. At this point, guidance is advertising the Al/Fl state line. Am going to issue Dense Fog/Marine Fog products with the coming package, starting at 06z/midnight and ending at 16z/10am. With the fog and expected cloudy skies limiting overnight cooling, and the stalling cold front more of a wind shift front, am expecting temperatures to drop into the low to mid 60s across the forecast area, well above seasonal norms. Wednesday, the base of the upper ridge has shifted west over the Gulf of Mexico, with a weak upper ridge remaining in place over the Southeast. Low level flow continues to remain weak with the surface ridge remaining relatively disorganized. Above the surface, south to southwest flow remains in place and am expecting the stalled front to provide the focus for isentropic upglide showers over mainly northwestern portions of the forecast area. Another day of well above seasonal temperatures is in store for the forecast area, though rain cooling and increased cloud cover over the northwestern quarter of the forecast area will help to limit daytime heating. High temperature ranging from the mid 70s northwestern-most portions of the forecast area to upper 70s south. With persistent fog lasting well into the morning, maybe longer south of I-10, am expecting temperatures to top out in the low 70s between I-10 and the coast. /16 && .AVIATION... 18Z issuance...Early morning IFR/LIFR conditions have risen to mid level MVFR or higher, with the lower conditions over the western Florida panhandle at 17z. Am expecting clouds to hang tough today, with CIGs upper level MVFR or high into the evening, and southerly winds around 10 knots, 10-15 knots along and south of I-10. Tonight, guidance is advertising dense fog forming. With weakening southerly flow (winds dropping to 5 knots or less) over cool waters along and south of the coast, LIFR conditions are likely over our coastal counties and near-shore areas. With winds remaining light southerly, am expecting the lower conditions to last well into Wednesday morning. North of the dense fog development(northern border still fluid), IFR to low end MVFR conditions are expected. /16 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob