560 FXUS61 KRLX 202321 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 621 PM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Dry through Monday. A warming trend continues through mid week. Wet at times Monday night into Friday as two systems cross. Dry and cold for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 620 PM Sunday... Loaded current observations for temperatures and dew point and slightly adjusted trends overnight. As of 1220 PM Sunday... A high pressure system will slide off to the east through Monday. This will allow for a southerly/southwesterly wind flow to develop, causing temperatures to moderate considerably. Even though there will be an increase in moisture from the southerly winds, dry weather will prevail through Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM Sunday... Moisture being transported via southwesterly flow will prime the area for light rain showers beginning late Monday evening. Warm temperatures on the onset of what will turn out to be a multi- day event will maintain the predominant precipitation type as rain, with as much as an inch possible come Tuesday once shower coverage overspreads the entire forecast area. Given the already saturated ground from previous rainfall, flooding issues pose a concern, especially if the axis of heaviest rain falls in and around the realm where flooding was observed only days prior. The forecast area remains within the warm sector on Tuesday amid a developing low pressure system out in the midwest. This may allow for a few rumbles of thunder, but instability is strongly lacking to amount to anything of significance. However, will make note of the bursts of heavier rainfall that could transpire within any weak convection, tapping further into the potential risk of flooding heading through the work week. A cold front will be making its way into the area by midweek as its parent low charges into the Great Lakes region followed by the New England area. The tail end of the system becomes cut off from the low and banks up along the Appalachians and down into the Mississippi Valley, with reasonable evidence to suggest the stalled boundary will remain in close quarters to the forecast area. Moisture drops off for a fleeting time on Wednesday with the loss of assistance from the departing low pressure, but a secondary low forming in the ArkLaTex region will likely travel in similar fashion to the previous disturbance and supply the orphaned front with nutrients to stir precipitation back up for the start of the short term period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 PM Sunday... Despite the frontal boundary parked to our south and east after midweek, the aforementioned secondary disturbance will extend its reach into the Central Appalachians by Thursday morning. Rain will then once again overtake the area and maintain the threat for flooding. Much colder air remains shunted to the north and west of the Ohio River through the majority of the work week, which would suggest that rain remains the triumphant precipitation type through the bulk of this event. Portions of southeast Ohio, however, will be positioned around the sub-zero 850mb line and could see more of a mixture or a complete changeover to snow, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. Improving conditions should gradually sweep through the area by Friday and into the weekend, with much colder temperatures finally sinking overhead. High pressure then takes residence across the Ohio Valley on Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 620 PM Sunday... Mainly clear skies are expected through the next 24 hours with light southwesterly winds.. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions possible late Monday night through Tuesday night as the next front moves across, and then again Thursday, as yet another system arrives. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MEK NEAR TERM...RPY/JP SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JP