686 FXUS63 KMQT 201730 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1230 PM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Early This Morning) Issued at 305 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2022 Latest water vapor loop and RAP analysis shows the shortwave with the approaching Clipper system over the Northern Plains now moving into the western ND with the associated cloud shield stretching from the Dakotas and Manitoba into the Upper Great Lakes region. Snowfall returns on radar over northern MN and across Lake Superior into the eastern U.P seem to match up pretty well with 850 mb thermal advection at the nose of the 50-60 kt LLJ and along an area of favorable 850 mb fgen forcing. Light snow into Schoolcraft and Luce counties earlier tonight may have also been aided by weak enhancement off Lake Mi in a southerly flow. As 850 mb temps continue to warm through the early morning hours lake contribution to pcpn into the east will wane. Lower condensation pressure deficits remaining to the north suggest any snow through the early morning hours should stay north of the U.P. and at the leading edge of the 850 mb warm front. Temps will continue to stay or slowly rise through the teens and lower 20s through sunrise. Southwest winds will also remain somewhat gusty through sunrise, but shallow mixing/instability near the sfc as noted on fcst sounding will limit gusts to 20-25 kts inland and maybe up to 30 kts for downsloping areas near Lake Superior. .LONG TERM...(Sunday morning through Saturday) Issued at 501 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2022 Precip chances begin to push southward with the Clipper advancing southeastward this morning. Light snowfall remains expected for the Keweenaw and eastern U.P. today, with up to an inch along the trough axis and associated forcing. Elsewhere in the northern U.P. less than an inch of snowfall is most likely through early evening. With warm air advection that is presently shifting into the western U.P. early this morning, expect temperatures to steadily climb today. Snow showers could be mixed with some rain today with any pre-frontal showers through early afternoon. The warmest temperatures are expected in the south-central U.P. around mid-day before the frontal passage. Post-frontal, the gusty southerly winds from this morning and early afternoon will decrease in speed and begin to shift westerly. Some light lake effect remains in the forecast this evening with a continued gradual shift to northwesterly then north-northeasterly low level flow. Recent guidance has trended a bit drier in the 850 mb layer with some slightly less uniform northerly component winds across Lake Superior. These conditions will be monitored and could warrant some decreases in the precip chances for eastern and central zones overnight and early Monday morning. Coverage of LES tonight remains fairly certain with some scattered showers in Gogebic and Ontonagon Counties. An additional inch of localized snowfall cannot be ruled out in the far western U.P. tonight. The main forecast impact period for this week will be from Monday mid-day through Wednesday morning from nearly continuous light to moderate snowfall at times. The first wave remains on track to spread accumulating system snow across Upper Michigan from west to east beginning Monday morning. The jet streak supported system snow will be enhanced by Lake Superior moisture transported along the moist mean 950-825mb ENE wind. Accumulating snowfall has trended northward and increased slightly with this morning's forecast for Monday late morning to mid-evening. Snowfall is expected across most of the U.P. Monday and could create some areas of hazardous travel conditions in the periods of localized moderate snowfall. Lake effect showers remain likely Monday night before the next round of system snow moves into the Upper Great Lakes region by Tuesday. At this time, Tuesday afternoon and evening are most favored for the heaviest widespread snowfall, with additional lake enhancement off Lake Superior. This second round of precipitation is due to a low pressure system moving northeastward out of the Central Plains. Beyond the snow, expect some gusty northeasterly winds Monday night and through Tuesday for communities and travel corridors along the Lake Superior shorelines. Blowing snow on Tuesday could create some reduced visibilities as well. The low pressure is progged to exit the region into Canada by early Wednesday morning. The shift to northwesterly winds behind the trough axis then promotes a more typical post-frontal lake effect snow period. Increased Wednesday morning, afternoon and evening chances of precipitation for this case. All through this period, there is high confidence in temperatures being well-below normal for late February with very little spread in the NBM members as seen on the NBM 1-D Viewer. Scattered snow showers for Friday right now look to be mainly light. Temperatures closer to normal could occur next weekend under southwesterly flow ahead of the next clipper passing over the region later next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2022 MVFR conditions will continue as a cold front moves through the area. Southwest winds veering west-northwest this afternoon and then north-northeast tonight will lower cigs down to MVFR in light lake effect snow showers. Vsbys will go to IFR at KCMX early this afternoon in snow and blowing snow. Steadier snow will move in late Mon morning. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 407 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2022 South to southwesterly gales decrease by the mid-morning hours today. Winds will turn northwesterly up to 32 knots behind a surface trough today. Expect a long duration of northeasterly winds across Lake Superior beginning Monday and lasting into early Wednesday. Winds will be between 20-30 knots with gale force gusts up to 40 knots for much of that time. The northeasterly gales on Tuesday may yet need to be increased if the trend for an incoming system affecting Lake Superior persists over the next twelve to twenty four hours. A prolonged period of heavy freezing spray is expected through most of next week with below normal temperatures expected. Winds will be lighter during the second half of the week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ266-267. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday for LSZ162. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ243-244-263-264. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...07 MARINE...NLY