505 FXUS64 KBMX 200455 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1055 PM CST Sat Feb 19 2022 .UPDATE... Evening Update and 06Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1050 PM CST Sat Feb 19 2022/ High pressure and a dry atmosphere will bring clear skies overnight. Temperatures fell quickly after sunset and did adjust the trend for the overnight. Lows should still generally range from 25 to 35 degrees. 75 Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022/ Through Sunday. Features of Interest. A longwave trough now extends from over Southeast Canada south to over the Carolinas while mid-layer ridging was over the Southern Plains. A reinforcing cold front was positioned from Upstate New York southeast to the Ozarks in Northwest Arkansas. Today. The longwave trough will continue to move further to our east today with a northwest flow persisting aloft. A reinforcing cold front will move into the area from the north this afternoon in dry fashion with clear skies areawide. Surface high pressure will remain to our west and northwest this afternoon. Sunny skies are forecast today with north winds 6-12 mph and breezy at times south with winds from 10-20 mph this afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 50s far north to the lower 60s far southeast. Tonight. As the trough moves off the Eastern Seaboard tonight, a zonal flow will be present over the area with broad ridging centered to our south over the Southern Gulf of Mexico. The reinforcing cold front will become more diffuse with time as it moves southeast, dissipating before it reaches the Gulf Coast region. Surface high pressure will migrate northeast, becoming centered over Virginia by early Sunday morning. Clear skies are expected tonight with winds becoming light from the northeast from 3-6 mph. Another freeze is forecast for all but the far southeast tonight with readings from the mid 20s northeast to the mid 30s far southeast. The typically colder valley locations in the north and east could bottom out around 20 degrees before sunrise. Sunday. Zonal flow will prevail aloft while surface high pressure moves offshore from the Mid Atlantic Coastline. The result will be an increasing southeast to southerly flow in the lower to mid levels, which will lead to a warmer and more moist airmass across the area. Precipitable water amounts look to increase from a paltry 0.20 inches early in the morning to closer to a half inch by late afternoon, with values approaching an inch progged across the southwest portion of the state. Fair skies are forecast Sunday with a few clouds moving across the far west/southwest by the afternoon hours. Winds will become east in the morning then shift out of the southeast at 5-10 mph by afternoon. A warming trend will develop with highs ranging from around 60 in the eastern higher elevations to readings in the upper 60s across the far south. 05 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0238 PM CST Sat Feb 19 2022/ Models continue to advertise a wet weather pattern in the Monday to Friday time frame. Latest model guidance suggests the most persistent and heaviest rain axis may be a bit farther north than previously thought, but we shouldn't get too bogged down on specifics yet. While there are high POPs for several periods for some areas, the rain will likely come in several waves with some lulls in between. Will maintain the long duration but low confidence flooding threat in the HWO. The remainder of the long term forecast discussion is still valid. /61/ Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0343 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022/ Monday through Friday. A subtropical ridge will become an increasingly prominent fixture over the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas through the end of the forecast period while heights fall across the Western CONUS. The transition to southwesterly 850-500 mb flow across the Deep South Sunday night into Monday will be accompanied by a wave of warm advection and isentropic lift. Widespread showers and embedded elevated thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage Monday morning across the region. Eventually a warm sector will become established and the focus for rainfall will shift to our north Monday night and Tuesday morning. A shortwave ejecting from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley will cause a cold front to advance toward Alabama Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. As the front becomes parallel with the deep-layer flow, heavy rain and thunderstorms may become focused just north of Interstate 20, resulting in the potential for flash flooding Tuesday night. A relative break in the rain is expected on Wednesday afternoon and most of Thursday as the subtropical ridge strengthens between shortwave troughs. A warm sector may become established again across much of the forecast area on Thursday. The next shortwave ejection is scheduled for Thursday night which will lead more widespread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms into Friday along and behind a cold front. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Surface high pressure migrates from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic by Sunday. This will provide Central Alabama with light northerly wind overnight and south southeast winds 5-10kts Sunday afternoon. Even though winds will remain on the light side, broke out morning and afternoon on Sunday to indicate more of and easterly flow in the morning before veering to the south southeast. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions last through Sunday. RHs will drop off quite a bit and range from 20 to 30 percent on Sunday afternoon. 20ft winds become southeasterly on Sunday, but mixing will drop dew points in the afternoon most places. Wet conditions will return on Monday with an abundance of moisture expected through the rest of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 24 62 38 62 50 / 0 0 0 70 80 Anniston 29 63 42 63 53 / 0 0 0 70 70 Birmingham 32 64 46 62 54 / 0 0 10 70 70 Tuscaloosa 31 66 47 63 54 / 0 0 20 80 70 Calera 31 63 47 63 56 / 0 0 10 70 60 Auburn 34 63 45 64 54 / 0 0 0 60 40 Montgomery 33 67 45 67 56 / 0 0 10 60 40 Troy 34 68 45 68 55 / 0 0 0 50 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$