763 FXUS65 KABQ 191133 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 433 AM MST Sat Feb 19 2022 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with light winds, except for gusty S-SW winds this afternoon across eastern NM. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MST Sat Feb 19 2022... .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures are forecast to warm up several degrees all areas today. Southwest breezes will develop in eastern New Mexico while the light winds are forecast elsewhere. Southwest winds increase in eastern New Mexico Sunday and continue breezy to locally windy through Monday. A winter storm system is forecast to move through central and northern New Mexico Tuesday through Thursday with very cold air expected to move into eastern New Mexico Tuesday night, remaining in place for much of the remainder of the work week. Accumulating snow is forecast for much of western and northern New Mexico Tuesday night through Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... Increasing westerlies and warming are forecast through the weekend, with plenty of sunshine and daytime temperatures reaching above normal areawide by Sunday. Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast across the northeast quarter of the area this afternoon with a deepening lee side trough. Stronger westerlies and an even deeper lee side trough will bring breezy to locally windy conditions to much of eastern NM Sunday. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... West to southwest flow aloft remains overhead Sunday night and Monday with breezy to locally windy condtions forecast for much of eastern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Main weather prediction model trend tonight with regard to the deep upper-level trough for Tuesday and Wednesday is to take the base of the trough farther to the southwest to near Las Vegas, NV Tuesday night. The overall trough orientation attempts to keep the modified Arctic airmass in eastern NM at bay, at least according to the GFS. ECWMF still brings it westward into the Rio Grande Valley but is less bullish compared with previous runs. Uncertainty remains high with regard to not only how far the system digs southwestward over the western Great Basin and east- central CA Tuesday night but how the shallow modified Arctic airmass will behave given significantly lower pressure to the west. Both GFS and ECWMF continue to hit western and northern NM hard with snow but it's the remainder of forecast area where the greatest uncertainty lies. Keep abreast of the latest forecast with regard to this mid week system. There's plenty of cold air associated with this system that any snow that falls could be quite impactful. 11/33 && .FIRE WEATHER... |Potential for critical fire weather conditions will trend up through the weekend and into Monday given very dry conditions, above normal temperatures and increasing westerlies with a deepening lee side trough. Spotty critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the eastern plains, but winds will be a limiter. Winds will trend up Sunday and several hours of critical fire weather conditions are likely across the east central plains where a Fire Weather Watch is in effect. More widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast Monday across much of eastern NM and possibly further west into the Rio Grande Valley. Critical fire weather conditions may reemerge Tuesday ahead of a strong backdoor cold front, forecast to progress west into central NM late Tuesday night. An approaching potent upper level trough will bring chances for wetting precipitation to northern NM Tuesday through Tuesday night. Chances for wetting precipitation and much colder conditions will then spread across much of the area Wednesday into Thursday as the upper level trough moves east across the state. Colder conditions will prevail Friday in the wake of the departing trough. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for the following zones... NMZ108. && $$