809 FNUS74 KBMX 171250 FWSBMX Spot Forecast for OK 145, 146 & 148 WILDFIRES...USFS National Weather Service Birmingham AL 650 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 CST on February 17. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... .DISCUSSION... Conditions at the wildfire site in eastern Perry County near Little Oakmulgee Creek will be very windy throughout the day today. 20ft winds will prevail from 10 to 15mph, perhaps up to 20mph at times. Overall wind gusts up to 45mph will be possible throughout the day. Fortunately, RH values will continue to rise with wetting rainfall expected as storms push through during the late afternoon and evening hours. 20ft winds will diminish overnight tonight, shifting to the northwest through the day on Friday. Rain free conditions will return over the weekend. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain showers in the morning and early afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. CWR.................30 percent increasing to 70 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2 until 1500, then 3. Max temperature.....Around 77. Min humidity........67 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 37 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 23 to 30 mph increasing to 33 to 38 mph in the late morning and afternoon. LVORI...............2. Dispersion index....25 increasing to 33 early in the morning, then increasing to 46 late in the morning increasing to 84 late in the morning increasing to 90 decreasing to 81 late in the afternoon. TIME (CST) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM Sky (%).........79 68 66 89 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CWR.............40 40 70 70 LAL.............1 2 3 3 Temp............73 76 77 73 RH..............72 67 68 80 20 FT wind......S 12 S 13 S 13 S 14 20 FT wind gust.29 26 28 30 20 FT wind dir..180 180 180 190 Mix hgt (ft)....2800 3100 2900 2500 Transport wind..S 35 S 36 S 38 S 37 Dispersion idx..80 88 91 81 LVORI...........3 1 3 3 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and chance of thunderstorms in the evening. CWR.................100 percent decreasing to 10 percent. LAL.................3 until 2400, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 40. Max humidity........97 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 14 mph with gusts to around 30 mph shifting to the northwest 8 to 9 mph with gusts to around 22 mph late in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening. Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 28 to 36 mph shifting to the northwest 24 to 26 mph late in the evening, then shifting to the north around 22 mph early in the morning. LVORI...............4. Dispersion index....72 decreasing to 31. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........100 100 100 100 91 82 Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CWR.............100 100 80 10 10 0 LAL.............3 3 3 1 1 1 Temp............71 69 67 64 53 45 RH..............88 94 95 94 92 90 20 FT wind......S 14 SW 12 SW 10 NW 8 NW 8 NW 8 20 FT wind gust.30 29 25 20 18 17 20 FT wind dir..190 210 240 310 320 320 Mix hgt (ft)....2300 2000 1800 1700 1900 2000 Transport wind..S 36 S 32 SW 28 NW 25 NW 25 NW 24 Dispersion idx..75 62 50 28 28 32 LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 4 .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming sunny (15-25 percent). CWR.................0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 53. Min humidity........47 percent. Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph early in the morning. Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 16 to 20 mph. LVORI...............3. Dispersion index....26 increasing to 55 late in the morning, then decreasing to 47 late in the afternoon decreasing to 33 late in the afternoon. TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........74 74 61 37 22 16 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............40 40 43 48 51 49 RH..............88 81 71 56 49 53 20 FT wind......NW 8 N 8 N 8 N 7 N 7 N 6 20 FT wind gust.16 16 14 14 13 12 20 FT wind dir..330 340 340 340 340 340 Mix hgt (ft)....2100 2300 2500 2800 3000 2300 Transport wind..N 20 N 18 N 18 N 17 N 16 N 16 Dispersion idx..26 25 25 54 52 47 LVORI...........4 4 3 1 1 1 $$ Forecaster...GGoggins Requested by...Jeremy N Brand Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2203271.2/BMX .DELDT 02/17/22 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0