016 FXUS64 KAMA 160428 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1028 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 .AVIATION...06Z TAF... VFR CIGs and VIS expected through 00Z Thursday. The main story in the first half of the period will be LLWS. Fifteen hundred to two thousand foot winds will be around 40 to 50 kts from the WSW. Surface winds will be around 15 kts out of the SSW creating the LLWS through about 12Z. As the surface winds pick up and veer more SW to W the LLWS will diminish just after 12Z. Around 18Z surface winds become more westerly around 20 to 25 kts gusting up to 35 kts for KDHT and KAMA. A surface front may stall over KGUY keeping the winds down for this terminal. An upper level storm system will bring a chance of rain then snow to the area after 00Z Thursday. This may bring some MVFR to IFR conditions late in the period and possibly LIFR conditions into the new period. Hoffeditz && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 519 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022/ AVIATION...00Z TAFs... VFR CIGs and VIS expected to prevail through the 00Z TAF period. The big concern for this period will be the expected LLWS that will be starting soon as a low level jet ramps up over the area. Overnight during the hours of darkness 2k foot winds are expected to be 45 to 50 kts at times out of a more westerly direction (250 to 260), while the surface winds are closer to 15 to 20 kts out of a SSW direction (210 to 220). Skies will remain mostly clear with maybe a few high clouds. The LLWS should subside toward sunrise, or 12Z time frame. Hoffeditz PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Night... Expect another windy day tomorrow with critical fire weather for parts of the area due to low pressure across NM and SRN CO. Strongest winds will be confined to the SW third as a very slow moving cont front approaches the OK Panhandle. Strongest winds may occur around lunch time as 40-50kt LLJ mixes, although timing of the front will be key and some model differences continue. The front may even stall completely briefly in the afternoon, but should rapidly surge south again after sunset and especially the second half of the night. Vigorous upper low over CA in the base of a larger scale positively tilted upper trough will continue to make the turn and swing east before bottoming out near the Mexican border. A short wave diving through the backside of the upper trough will cause the low to weaken some and possibly open up completely as it makes the turn although models are not in good agreement in these details still. Generally it seems more times than not these systems remain stronger and stay closed longer than models think, but even if that does not occur, a strong open wave will still provide strong large scale lift across the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning with the peak lift occurring between 6Z and 12Z. Good moisture advection seen in H7 theta-e fields will provide an chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across the far ERN TX Panhandle Wed evening. A strong cap and low CAPE will be significant mitigating factors for strong convection, but wind shear is impressive if a storm manages to break through. SPC SVR outlook just clips the SE Texas Panhandle with a marginal mainly for Wed evening SVR storm potential with much higher threat further east where better instability and less cap are expected. Better precip chance will come behind the front as the strong large scale lift swings into the area. Rain may be followed by a wintry mix (or perhaps just sleet) briefly, but expect a relatively quick transition to all snow from north to south overnight. Timing of the FROPA, upper level system and better moisture depth all seem to favor the N and NE areas for snow accumulations. Middle of the road forecasts suggest just a dusting of snow along I-40 including Amarillo, but 1-2 inches across the OK and far north Texas Panhandle with some additional accumulations mainly in the northeast. It will be windy with the snowfall Wed night and the main concern for impacts would be for the morning commute on Thursday, especially across the north. Gittinger Fire Weather...Critical conditions all areas continue today and expect repeat for the SW 3rd on Wednesday. RFTIs of anywhere from 4 to 8 are occurring now and expect RFTI of 4-5 and possibly 6 across the southwest on Wed. Red flag warnings are in place today with watched in place for parts of the area on Wednesday. Gittinger LONG TERM... Overview: With the snowfall tapering off Thursday morning across eastern portions of the area, the forecast goes to a more "quiet" pattern through the weekend. Early next week we have a chance for another round of precipitation starting Monday night. Otherwise, look for mostly mild temperatures beyond Thursday as this is the coldest day in the forecast with highs mostly in the 30s and low 40s. By the weekend, we will warm back up to the 60s and 70s for highs. Further Details: The 500mb shortwave will be exiting the region Thursday morning, and we may have some lingering snowfall across the eastern Panhandles, but this will come to a conclusion early in the day. That said, additional accumulations could end up being around a dusting to around 0.5" for most areas, but upwards around 1-2 inches in favored areas. This would place event totals at 2-3 inches in the north, but the 90th percentile suggest worse case scenario amounts of 4-6". The better chances for higher amounts will be in the northeast across the eastern OK Panhandle and northeast TX Panhandle where the better moisture depth will be located. Forecast soundings from the NAM indicate a possible warm nose, and this could throw a wrench into the mix, but fortunately once we saturate we are below freezing. Something we will need to watch in case we need to introduce some mixed precipitation, but at this time we are not forecasting ice accumulation. Moisture and forcing will taper off quickly Thursday morning as the 500mb shortwave exits to the east. This will start our dry stretch as the flow aloft goes zonal/northwesterly with little moisture to work with for several days. After the cold air settles in, highs on Thursday will struggle to get much above the 30s. A few areas might get to the low 40s. Thereafter we will have a gradual warming trend through the weekend into early next week. In fact, this weekend is going to be relatively nice for mid February with 60s/70s forecast for highs and sunny skies. As in typical Panhandle fashion part of the reason for the warmth is the westerly/southwesterly downsloping breezy winds each day. Winds will be around 20-25 mph sustained Sat/Sun. Both days will yield dry afternoon conditions as RH values drop down into the teens, so we will be looking at a risk for fire weather this weekend depending on how much moisture we get from this system tomorrow/tomorrow night. The attention then turns to the next potential winter weather maker middle of next week (outside the current 7 day forecast). We will be watching the Tues/Wed time frame for the next shot at wintry weather. Guerrero && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall. OK...None. && $$ 36/15