015 FXUS65 KBYZ 110319 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 819 PM MST Thu Feb 10 2022 .UPDATE... A cold front is currently located from near Harlowton to Billings to Ashland, moving southwesterly at 20-30mph. Ahead of the front winds, while still strong, have dropped into the 35 to 50 mph range as surface pressure falls strengthen west of the divide, working against the westerly winds. Behind the front, temperatures drop to around 40 degrees pretty quickly, and fall into the low to mid 30s where precipitation begins. Observations show light rain or a rain/snow mix from Hysham eastward along I-94 and US12. Models in good agreement with any significant snowfall occurring in the foothills of the southern mountains, with lesser accumulations eastward into SE Montana. Further north and west little snow accumulation is expected, and precipitation may stay light rain in some locations. Made adjustments to temperatures and winds based on latest trends with minor changes to precipitation and snow accumulations. Cancelled the High Wind highlites. No changes to the going Winter Weather Advisories for the foothills. Chambers && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Friday night... Winds will decrease this evening ahead of a backdoor cold front that will slide into the region this evening, switching winds to the northwest, and bringing rain and snow showers. Best snow potential will be in the foothills and mountain zones, especially along the Bighorn Mountains, and over southeast. Snow will continue into Friday. General consensus is from 1-3 inches of snow, with the highest over the higher hills. The morning commute could be a concern with visibility and slick roads mainly in areas south of I-90 from Livingston to Billings and south of I-94 from Billings to the ND border. Winds will persist Friday. Friday will be significantly cooler than past several days. Precipitation will taper off gradually through the day. High temperatures on Friday will cool back towards normal in the 30s. Plouffe Saturday through Thursday... Starting Saturday, high pressure will build over the region, warming temperatures and increasing gap flow wind potential into early next week. By Tuesday/Wednesday, ensembles prog a frontal system to drop through the region, bringing cooler conditions and chances for snow. Will monitor this system over the coming days. High temperatures look to range from the 30s and 40s on Saturday, warming into the 40s and 50s Sunday through Monday, before dropping into the 20s and 30s by the middle of the week. Low temperatures in the 20s and 30s look possible most nights, with teens or colder by the middle of next week. One benefit of the cooler weather will be a noticeable lack of wind. borsum/STP && .AVIATION... A cold front moving through the area will weaken winds overnight and increase cloud cover and rain/snow activity. Wind gusts will diminish to the 20 to 35kt range for most locations tonight, turning from the west ahead of the front to the North/Northeast behind it. VFR ceilings will prevail ahead of the front, dropping to MVFR/Local IFR behind it near areas of precipitation. Snow will produce mountain obscuration for area mountains, longest lasting along the north face of the Beartooth and Bighorn mountains. Conditions will improve Friday but expect continued wind gusts to 35kts and scattered snow showers through Friday evening. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 033/038 023/050 028/054 028/052 033/046 028/039 022/046 32/S 00/N 00/U 00/B 33/S 33/S 10/B LVM 030/037 022/047 028/052 029/050 031/042 026/037 020/043 23/S 00/N 00/N 01/N 44/S 32/S 11/N HDN 031/039 020/048 024/055 025/052 028/045 025/039 019/046 53/S 10/E 00/U 00/B 33/O 33/S 11/B MLS 030/035 019/041 021/048 025/048 028/041 022/034 017/043 44/S 20/E 00/B 00/B 11/E 22/S 11/B 4BQ 031/034 020/041 023/050 025/050 028/043 024/036 019/043 75/S 20/E 00/U 00/B 12/S 22/S 10/B BHK 022/030 015/035 016/045 021/042 023/039 018/031 013/038 45/S 10/E 00/B 00/B 11/E 11/B 10/B SHR 029/035 018/046 024/054 025/052 028/044 022/036 016/043 85/S 10/B 00/U 00/B 24/S 34/S 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 AM to 8 PM MST Friday FOR ZONES 56-66. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to noon MST Friday FOR ZONE 138. WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to noon MST Friday FOR ZONE 199. && $$ weather.gov/billings