057 FXUS64 KMOB 072134 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 334 PM CST Mon Feb 7 2022 .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...A shield of light rainfall continues to push shift east across the area mainly southeast of the I-65 corridor this afternoon. This is in response to an approaching upper level trough from the west that has managed to pull adequate moisture aloft northward into the area. Expect this trough to shift east of the area by Tuesday. At the surface, transient, weak high pressure shifts into the ArkLaTex region helping to keep surface northerly winds over the area. Showers are gradually tapering off from west to east, and expect them to be out of the area by early evening. With that said, expect things to dry out tonight into Tuesday morning with a sunnier and drier day for Tuesday. Temperatures struggled to climb this afternoon only reaching the lower 50's for most locations. Lows tonight will manage lower to middle 30's northwest of the I-65 corridor, and middle 30's generally prevailing southeast of the I-65 corridor. Highs Tuesday will be a bit warmer, rising into the upper 50's for most areas with a few spots managing to touch 60 degrees. MM/25 && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...A weakening upper trof over the region moves slowly off to the east while another upper trof advances across the Plains, with this second upper trof evolving into a large and broad upper trof over the eastern and central states on Wednesday. A surface ridge remains over the region meanwhile, then weakens somewhat over the area on Thursday as the large upper trof shifts slowly eastward and brings a weakening cold front into the interior Gulf coast states. Dry conditions are expected to continue over the area through the period as despite the approach of the weakening front and slow advance of the larger upper trof, deep layer moisture remains too limited to support consideration of pops. A low risk of rip currents is expected through the period. Lows Tuesday night range from the lower 30s inland to the mid to upper 30s at the immediate coast, then a modest warming trend follows through Thursday night when lows range from the mid 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 60s then highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 60s. /29 && .EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/...A massive and broad upper trof pattern over the eastern and central CONUS on Friday steadily amplifies over the weekend and progresses into the eastern states. An associated surface low passes well to the north and brings a trailing cold front through the forecast area on Saturday with a surface ridge building into the region in the wake of the front through Monday. A surface low may develop over the western Gulf on Saturday and progress quickly across the northeast Gulf into the far western Atlantic by Sunday morning, but despite this potential feature and the frontal passage, deep layer moisture continues to look too limited to support a mention of precipitation through the period. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the mid to upper 60s then in the wake of the front, highs on Sunday will be in the 50s before recovering to generally around 60 on Monday. Lows Friday night will be in the 40s then trend cooler such that by Sunday night lows range from around 30 well inland to the mid to upper 30s at the coast. /29 && .MARINE...A light to occasionally moderate northerly flow continues through the week as high pressure builds north of the marine area. Well offshore over the 20-60nm Gulf waters small craft should exercise caution tonight. Northerly flow increases to moderate to possibly strong at times this weekend. Little change in seas expected through the week, with some increase to 2 to 5 feet by Sunday. MM/25 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob