109 FXUS63 KMQT 062006 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 306 PM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Through this evening) Issued at 235 PM EST SUN FEB 6 2022 Mid to upper trough axis swinging across the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon accompanied by supportive atmospheric moisture has allowed for widespread snow to envelope much of the U.P. Drier air is already working its way across the western portions of Lake Superior, ensuring the progressiveness of the snow but not before it drops about another inch or so, particularly in the east, on top of what just fell within the last 24 hours. Combination of what's been observed and radar imagery indicates that moderate snow is embedded. Currently, a strip of at least moderate snow is running from around Trenary NEward into between Munising and Shingleton. Motorists should be aware of the potential for a reduction in visbys and therefore use low-beam headlights and allow for extra time to reach destinations, leaving ample space between vehicles. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 159 PM EST SUN FEB 6 2022 Not too much has changed in the last few cycles as far as the overall pattern goes across the CONUS. NW flow will continue through this fcst period with a brief mid-week warm up Tuesday/Wednesday. Confidence is beginning to increase for a clipper system and associated sfc low sometime on Friday as model and ensemble means continue to trend closer to together. Sfc low over Lake Superior today will continue to slowly shift east tonight as sfc ridging starts to approach from the west. CAMs are still suggesting lake-effect circulations to come on shore as the low shifts away and winds veer more northerly. Exact placements of these more intense lake-effect bands are tough to place, but initially it looks like they will initially make their way onshore across the wern UP tonight and then additional circulations will move onshore along the Mqt/Alger line sometime early tomorrow morning. Snowfall amounts will be generally light, with the exception of where these bands move onshore, with the potential for a quick 1-2 inches of snow as they move onshore. This will need to be monitored heading into tonight and the morning commute looks to be affected along M28 tomorrow morning between Marquette and Munising/Wetmore. As heights begin to rise and sfc high pressure continues to settle in across the UP, should see some clearing from west to east through the day as winds back more to the SW...eventually becoming calm across the land. Will see some LES and clouds linger across the east through the afternoon, but should be finished by the evening hours. Went colder across the interior for Monday night as clear skies and calm winds will initially allow temps to fall off early, before starting to increase late in the night as WAA and winds increase. As shortwave ridging takes over Tuesday btwn exiting sfc high pressure and an approaching trof, SW winds will increase with 850mb temps near -2 to 0C. This should bring temperatures to around the 30F mark for Tuesday afternoon. Don't look for temps to fall off too much overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, with Wednesday highs coming in the morning across the west and afternoon in the east. As another shrtwv trof brings and associated cold front across the UP through the day, temps should be falling through the aftn from W to E. This will bring the return to some NW wind LES, aided with some add'l forcing as a weak sfc low passes across northern Lake Superior. Uncertainty remains in the details of Thursday into Friday, as GEFS mean 850mb temps are colder than the EC/GEM deterministic. GFS has temps in the single digits on Thursday, with NBM/EC/GEM all much closer to 30 degrees. GFS and GEFS has remained a bit of an outlier this week as it maintains a more amplified pattern. EPS means have all been consistent over the last 6-7 runs or so, so leaning more towards this thinking. With its amplified pattern, GFS is also a bit slower then EC/GEM in a sfc low moving across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night. EC and its EPS mean continues to bring a deeper low (984 on 12Z run) across northern Lake Superior Thursday night. Confidence is high enough that there will be a sfc low moving through Thursday night into Friday, but details will need to wait a few days. There could be moderate snowfall with this clipper system, especially where enhanced lake-effect and convergence takes place. Some LES can then be expected behind the exiting clipper through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1239 PM EST SUN FEB 6 2022 Each of the three terminals has been reporting much different conditions from one another. Starting at KIWD, it's been teetering between MVFR and IFR, with prevailing MVFR expected to continue through the remainder of the day, with some passing SHSN causing brief IFR visbys. At KCMX, it's been teetering between IFR and LIFR, with prevailing IFR expected to continue through the remainder of the day, with some passing SHSN causing brief LIFR visbys. Lastly, at KSAW, it's been primarily MVFR up until the last two hours, reporting VFR cigs. This won't last with MVFR expected to prevail this afternoon with brief IFR visbys due to incoming progressive SHSN. Categories are anticipated to reliably improve tonight and even more so tomorrow outside of lingering NNWrly LES. Wrly to NWrly sfc winds will dominate through this TAF period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 159 PM EST SUN FEB 6 2022 Winds will veer around to the north as a weak sfc low pressure system continues to slowly shift east this evening. Winds around 20 knots can be expected from the north tonight, though a few mesolows are expected to develop which may bring locally higher gusts up to around 30 knots. A sfc ridge of high pressure is then expected to move in from the west through the day Monday, bringing light winds across the lake. Southerly winds increase to around 25 knots on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front early Wednesday morning. NW winds will remain btwn 20 to 30 knots through Wednesday evening before relaxing by Thursday afternoon. Models are starting to hone in on a sfc low pressure system, with the potential for gales Thursday night into Friday. There remains considerable spread between the models, both spatially and temporally, so I do expect the fcst to start increasing over the next day or so than what the fcst is currently. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...lg LONG TERM...JAW AVIATION...lg MARINE...JAW