018 FXUS63 KFGF 040944 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 344 AM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 At 09z...500 mb short wave was near Jamestown/Aberdeen and moving SE with sfc low just west of Fargo. Light snow with this system will be ending in the Park Rapids, Bemidji area by 12z. NW winds behind teh system will gust into the 25-30 mph range at times. New snowfall was less than 1 inch, mostly in the tenths, and just enough wind to cause some blowing snow this morning, mostly regulated to blowing across the roads vs lofted into the sky. Our next clipper system is fast approaching with sfc low and 500 mb system tracking a tad south of the last couple, with sfc low progged to go from near Regina to Minot to just south of Grand Forks. Model agreement is pretty good in that the highest chances for 2 or more inches is across far S Manitoba and into northeastern ND/northern MN...including Langdon to Thief River Falls to near Bemidji and north where probs are higher than 80 pct of 2 or more inches with near 50 percent chance of 4 inches or more aound Lake of the Woods. WFO DLH coordinated a winter wx advisory for late tonight into Saturday in areas where confidence of 3 inches of snow is highest which would be Langdon-Thief River Falls- Bemidji and north. Tight southern gradient to snowfall so Devils Lake-Grand Forks-Park Rapids could see as little as a half inch or up to 2 inches. So for now kept this region out of any advisory. Complicating the picture will be potential issues with blowing snow and reduced visibility. In the Advisory area of the northern RRV looking at south winds gusting to 35-40 mph and a 80 percent chance of seeing visibilities of 1/2SM in snow and blowing snow. Just south of the advisory (that Devils Lake-Grand Forks-Crookston zone) south winds also will gust 35 mph and there is also a 50 percent chance of seeing 1/2SM vsby in snow and blowing snow but much of this will depend on actual falling snow and with a bit more uncertainity in south extent of new snow kept them out of advisory attm, but certainly it will continued to be looked at thru the day. Also another question on winds is strength of inversion, which is very strong tonight as 850 mb temps warm much more than the sfc. But sfc gradient is quite tight too and argues that despite inversion there will be wind gusts to 35 mph. Snow area will expand southeast into far NE ND 06z-12z Satruday then into NW MN 12-18z Saturday period with snow ending in NW MN late aftn Saturday. Forcing is quite strong with upper level divergence maximum over E ND/NW MN at 12z Sat and some frontogenesis in the warm advection zone moving into NW MN and hanging back around the Manitoba/ND border closer to 500 mb short wave at 12z Sat. As low moves east, winds will turn northwest but soundings indicate wind gust potential more in the 25-30 mph range and more so central and south valley where much less snow will fall. Also it will be considerably warmer in SE ND with low 30s south of the low. So impacts from blowing snow Saturday aftn look a bit less than in the early morning. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 Overview... A period of gradual warming is anticipated throughout the long term with above normal temperatures expected. Otherwise, signals continue to indicate occasional clipper systems that will bring with light snow impacts to the region. Sunday through Thursday... Following the Saturday system, colder air will once again filter into the region. While not as cold as our recent arctic plunge, temperatures are expected to hover around the single digits on Sunday as surface high pressure builds into the region. Moving into early next week, a transient period of upper level ridging will bring temperatures back up above normal, where they are generally expected to moderate for the remainder of the long term period. A slight upper level pattern shift will bring northwesterly flow aloft back to the region following a weak Tuesday shortwave. Strong WAA ahead of the Tuesday system will bring with unseasonably warm temperatures in the 30s to the forecast area. The overall track of the Tuesday shortwave favors highest precipitation impacts across northwestern Minnesota, with even these impacts looking minimal (NBM probabilities of 24 hour snowfall exceeding 1 inch at < 10%) at this time. Uncertainty will be the name of the game then moving into the remainder of the week ahead. While general trends are favoring a continuation of warm, above normal temperatures, cluster analysis does indicate a few scenarios where near to below normal temperatures will be possible. This will generally be tied to the orientation of the northwesterly flow aloft and whether CAA will be a prominent feature over the FA or be pushed further eastward. Regardless of temperature moderation, there is higher confidence in the possibility of embedded shortwaves to periodically impact the region. While there are some weak signals for a wave to bring light snow on Wednesday, there are stronger signals within ensemble guidance for precipitation impacts during the Thursday/Friday time frame. While confidence in the exact area, magnitude, and timing of impacts is low, there is increasing confidence that there will at least be some impacts from this system. This is further evidenced by NBM probabilities of 24 hour snowfall exceeding 1 inch in the 20-40% range. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1126 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022 Surface trough/wind shift has moved into the DVL area and will continue across the region tonight, entering GFK/FAR around sunset as winds shift to the northwest. Intermittent MVFR cigs will continue all sites E of DVL tonight as the light snow continues. Becoming less confident of IFR cigs as obs upstream seem to be more ice crystals in the colder airmass across SE Sask/SW Manitoba, that should work its way into NW MN by mid-morning. However, currently GAF does show IFR however this appears to be fairly isolated. So current thinking is predominant MVFR/VFR from 2K to 4K feet with some intermittent IFR in isolated areas. NW winds tomorrow with improved cigs and vsbys, however some drifting snow possible with increasing NW winds. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Saturday for NDZ007-008-016-054. MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ001>005-007-008- 013>015-022-027-029-030-040. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Saturday for MNZ004-007. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for MNZ005-006-008-009-013-016-017. $$ SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...Rick AVIATION...Speicher