071 FXUS64 KBRO 282045 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 245 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): After a rainy, windy, cloudy cool day the forecast looks brighter as mid-level troughing and strong jet passes to the east and mid/upper ridge builds nicely over the Inter-mountain west. This will usher in a drier northwest flow for the next 24-36 hours. 1034mb Surface ridge settles over the Rio Grande Plains tonight, along the coast Saturday and tracks east tomorrow night. Fair conditions with cool nights and a cool to mild day are in the offering for the first half of the weekend. The rain should be over before sunset with lower clouds clearing steadily this evening with the pressure gradient quickly collapsing. Temperatures fall fairly quickly possibly approaching minimums (low to mid 30s north and West and near 40 south and east) shortly after midnight. Satellite loops show another weak disturbance within the NW-W flow with only mid-level clouds associated with this feature. Model guidance indicates these clouds to overspread the region later tonight which may keep temperatures from reaching maximum cooling or slowing the radiational cooling process. Model consensus remains consistent keeping temperatures above freezing and if the expected cloud cover does materialize and persist through sunrise temperatures may even increase slightly. As surface ridge passes overhead and to the east Saturday a much drier atmosphere provides a very nice day with guidance in good consistency and agreement supporting highs in the lower 60s. Light northwest winds early Saturday turn east to southeast late in the day aiding to the modest warm up. The return of the southeast winds, albeit light, will help rebound Friday night lows about 6-10 degrees with most of the CWA dropping into the 40s. Added in some patchy fog for Saturday night with the cooling temperatures, the light return flow and clear skies along with wet ground potentially support shallow ground fog formation. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): A weak mid level ridge will briefly build over deep south Texas on Sunday as surface high pressure gradually slides eastward. Light onshore flow will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday. A closed 500mb low initially over Arizona will quickly track eastward Sunday into Sunday night. As this 500mb low approaches from the west, some moisture surges northward over the CWA as surface low pressure develops across the Plains. The best moisture values are expected along the lower Texas coast and across the Gulf waters, hence the better rain chances. However, the exact track of the closed low will determine the best chance of convection. Have adjusted POPs a little higher and slightly farther inland from the previous forecast, as models have trended a little farther south with the track of the 500mb low. Also, have added the mention of thunder to the weather grids for Monday with the 500mb closed low over the region. Mostly cloudy skies are expected Sunday night with lows generally in the mid to upper 50s with isolated showers near the coast. Monday will be breezy and warm with highs in the 70s with a chance of rain showers/isolated thunder, mainly near the coast. The 500mb low moves east of the region Monday night allowing for a nearly zonal mid level flow to prevail over Texas through Wednesday. Temperatures will steadily warm Monday night through Wednesday as a mainly onshore flow continues. The latest GFS and ECWMF are in fairly good agreement with the broad 500 mb trough digging into the central Plains and the associated cold front. The next cold front is still expected to move through deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This will result in much cooler temperatures through the rest of the period. && .MARINE:(Now through Saturday Night):Models are a bit slow to bring surface ridge to the coast which will maintain elevated winds into the evening with elevated seas likely through sunrise Saturday. Small Craft Advisories have been raised and continue for the Laguna until 9 PM and linger offshore until 9 AM. These could be cancelled earlier if conditions improve ahead of schedule. High pressure moves along the coast Saturday morning and pushes off to the east late in the day. Much improved conditions for the afternoon with a return of southeast winds as early as sunset Saturday. Sunday through Wednesday: Favorable conditions will prevail Sunday as high pressure across the western Gulf slides eastward. The pressure gradient is expected strenghtens Sunday night into Monday as low pressure develops across the Plains. Exercise caution conditions are likely on the Gulf waters by Sunday night with associated seas building towards small craft advisory territory Monday and Monday night. Rain chances increase across the lower Texas coast Sunday night into Monday as the moist onshore flow strenghtens. Rain chances then diminish Monday night as the pressure gradient weakens ahead of the next cold front. The strong cold front is expected to approach the lower Texas coastal waters Wednesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 43 62 49 70 / 10 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 43 65 50 72 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 39 64 46 70 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 41 65 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 38 64 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 51 61 56 66 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ256-257-351. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ256-257-351. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ256- 257-351. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132- 135. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ150-155-170- 175. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv 59-GB/Shot-term 63-KC/Long-term RH-IDSS